An unlikely local Melbourne Cup triumph?

Not to mention the forecast of rain which, alas, could be a complication for the arguably two best-credentialed of just four Australasian bred and trained horses remaining in the field, as it sits now, for Tuesday’s $7,775,000 Melbourne Cup. Nonetheless, I am not giving up on the notion of a seemingly unlikely “local” victory, most likely via Surprise Baby or Vow And Declare in an incredibly even Cup. Youngstar and The Chosen One are the other Antipodeans. The form is absolutely entwined around all the European challengers and those who featured prominently in last year’s Cup won by Cross Counter who somewhat inexplicably finds himself with a 6.5 kilogram hike to 57.5 kilograms….that’s 0.5 kilograms less than Maykbe Diva had the third time around. That means he probably can’t win even though Racing Victoria controversially, and wrongly in my view, ordered the scratching of last year’s runner-up Marmelo who was to meet him that 6.5 kilograms better. Mind you there’s nothing much wrong with Cross Counter’s form as you can forget the strangely run Irish St Leger in which he finished fourth, but I’d still think that if Charlie Appleby can pull this off then he is the modern day training genius many suspect he might be. And handicapper Greg Carpenter could take a bow as well. In truth this could well be the most competitive Cup ever run. Separating the rest of the European visitors, with a couple of exceptions, can be nothing more than guesswork other than noting that Mustajeer (especially), Master Of Reality, Southern France and Twilight Payment would appreciate softened ground, as would Haky and definite wildcard True Self who were not in the final 24 at the time of writing. Il Paradiso, who would also relish soft going, Magic Wand and the now locally trained Constantinople are the Europeans who bring a different profile to the race – other than that around the Ebor and Irish St Leger which encompasses most of the others. Il Paradiso and Constantinople are, of course, the two northern hemisphere three-year-olds and thus profile with the past two winners – Cross Counter and Rekindling and do so in more than just age and origin. They will run well. Those two three-year-olds are, in my opinion, the pick of the visitors along with Ebor fourth Raymond Tusk and Magic Wand who was sound in the Cox Plate after setting too quick a tempo when pressed in front. While expert opinion appears to be soft on Constantinople, I cannot concur. While all the main chances were sweeping into the race with uninterrupted runs, he was held up – shuffled back and lost all momentum at the most critical point of the race. So why then the case for the locals Surprise Baby and Vow And Declare – especially the latter as I must acknowledge some entwinement of the Caulfield Cup form at large and that Constantinople’s run may have been superior to that of Vow And Declare? Every Wednesday & Saturday in ANZ Bloodstock Saturday, November 2, 2019 Follow us @anz_news: click here | 13 | Brought to you by An unlikely local Melbourne Cup triumph? Cross Counter SPORTPIX | 14 | Well I’m running with X-factor as the Moonee Valley Racing Club committee did with the invitation to Lys Gracieux and the inclusion of Castelvecchio and Te Akau Shark in the Cox Plate. They were right. The market looks to be soft with Surprise Baby and his form-lines have been questioned but if the market and the blind assessment of form-lines determined every outcome then we wouldn’t be bothered at all with prognostication. I cannot recall any horse contesting the Cup with Surprise Baby’s profile. Ten starts, five wins – claims the Adelaide Cup at his sixth start; runs very well first-up at weight-for-age at 1600 metres; goes straight to 2500 metres and wins. There’s something special about this Paul Preusker-trained five-year-old and his supposedly suspect form took a turn for the better with Top Of The Range winning the Bendigo Cup. Vow And Declare, second best in order behind Mer De Glace in the Caulfield Cup and perhaps second best behind Constantinople in assessment, has the X-factor of trainer Danny O’Brien adopting a European approach to his training which looks like working and fair play to him as our visiting English and Irish friends would say. He bids to become the first local four-year-old to win the race since 2009 when Surprise Baby’s sire Shocking was successful and, like Shocking, Vow And Declare was a (very good) Queensland Derby runner-up at three. Any rain would make matters unclear for the two locals. Surprise Baby won on heavy ground on his only wet track start but it was in a Benchmark 64 while Vow And Declare’s lone soft win was in a maiden. That evidence is inconclusive and won’t stop me from supporting them regardless of the conditions. Derby Day and Cup Week Guide Derby Day presents it’s typically tough program for punters. My theory for fiscal survival is to focus on horses who are on the up, that is they’ve had no more than three runs for the campaign, and who are in the $4 to $10 range. Avoid the “shorties” and history simply says there’ll be very few long-shots. And don’t get too seduced by something you’ve seen win in Melbourne on either of the two previous Saturdays. Alarmingly, perhaps, just one of the 20 winners from the past three Cox Plate days, who competed again during the spring managed to win again. That’s an abysmally poor strike- rate. That one winner was the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott trained two-year-old Setsuna who won Flemington’s Ottawa Stakes after winning the Inglis Banner at the Valley in 2017. Star Of Carrum did run second in the Derby last year after winning the Vase. As to the 27 Caulfield Cup day winners who backed up again during the spring (principally during Cup week) just the five won again. They were the Waterhouse-Bott pair Our Crown Mistress and Pinot; Godolphin duo Rainer and Best Of Days along with Darren Weir’s Jennifer Lynn. Horses in the “on the up” category have an outstanding strike-rate in races up to 2000 metres. However, very few horses win first-up during Cup week and the handful who have won fresh have done so in races at 1600 metres and beyond. And, in recent years, the winners have been fairly evenly split between those locally trained and the visitors. Key lead-up form races? Not many although the Mackinnon Stakes has had ten winners come via the Cox Plate (nine unplaced) since the 3YO Casual Pass won in 2003. If you’re good enough to run OK in the Cox Plate, you’re generally good enough to win the Mackinnon. The Caulfield Cup form can reasonably be queried given that in the past ten years, 23 horses have competed in the Melbourne Cup after finishing in the first three in the Caulfield Cup and just one has been placed – Johannes Vermeer in 2017. But I’m largely disregarding that this year, perhaps to my peril. The past ten Melbourne Cups have seen two northern hemisphere three-year-olds win on debut in Australia; two other winners come via the Geelong Cup and Cox Plate and one each from the Lexus, Bart Cummings, Moonee Valley Cup and Herbert Power. It is 30 years since a Toorak Handicap winner managed to win again, next start, in the spring which doesn’t bode well for Fierce Impact in today’s Cantala Stakes. It doesn’t mean he can’t win of course but it is a caution. Starting prices? Nineteen favorites have won in the 74 Cup week races over the past two years – 48 winners have been in the $4 to $10 range and that should be the primary focus. There’s been only five winners at greater than $20 in the past two years. Starting today? While Zoutori looks the obvious in the TAB Stakes (race one), the profile horse (based on recent winners) and the value is Order Of Command who will relish returning to the straight track, the weight relief and (if there is) any ease in the ground. Any number of lead-up races throw up the Wakeful Stakes (race two) winner and John Sargent (who has Foxborough) has won this race three times in the past six years. If you fancy the favourite Flit, take comfort from the fact that no Thousand Guineas winner has contested this race since Atlantic Jewel completed the double in 2011. Vegas Jewel, runner-up in the Ethereal Stakes, would emulate Tiamo Grace and Aristia – two of the past three winners of the Wakeful. Eight of the past 12 Carbine Club Stakes (race three) winners have come through the Gothic Stakes which is good enough for me to be on Heirborn who is on the up and was easily the best closer in that on-pace dominated Caulfield leadup. Drawing wide has not been a disadvantage, coincidentally or hopefully otherwise in the Empire Rose Stakes (race five), and consequently Invincibella, Angelic Ruler and Fidelia may be over-priced (pending racing pattern of the day of course). Spanish Reef, unbeaten in three at the course and distance, is the value runner if onpace is the advantaged style. Shadow Hero’s class and resolve, and obvious form through Castelvecchio, may prevail in a wonderful Victoria Derby while any guess would be as good as mine in the other races on the card.