Steve Moran

Steve ponders the week of Royal Ascot and today’s racing

Lady Aurelia (Scat Daddy) is unlikely to be here I fancy; the weights and tyranny of distance considered. She is yet to be genuinely proven at 1200 metres (her one win at the distance came in a very soft race at Deauville against four others) and she beat up on average UK sprinters in the King’s Stand Stakes (Gr 1, 5f) despite the best efforts of local commentators to convince us otherwise. I could be on her in a Lightning!

Thomas Hobson (Halling) is too old and unlikely to be fast enough for the Melbourne Cup (Gr 1, 3200m). However, he just might win again tonight if he backs up in the Queen Alexandra Stakes (2m5.5f) after winning the Ascot Stakes (2m4f) on Tuesday. Twenty furlongs (4000m) then and now 21.5 furlongs tonight (4150m).

His trainer Willie Mullins won both races with Simenon (Marju) in 2012 and Mick Channon did likewise with Baddam (Mujahid) in 2006. Qewy (Street Cry) takes on Thomas Hobson and it looks a daunting task given he hasn’t raced since winning the Sandown Cup (Listed, 3200m) last November but the 2015 winner Oriental Fox (Lomitas) hadn’t raced for 12 months. He runs again tonight.

The night’s feature is, of course, the Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Gr 1, 6f) and there’s two horses with irresistible statistics and they’re well enough priced to back both. Tasleet (Showcasing) showed at York he’s come back a better horse and he has won four of his past five at 1200 metres. The Tin Man (Equiano) simply needs good ground, having won six of his past seven starts under firm footing and each at 1200 metres.

There is some rain forecast so naturally monitor that with The Tin Man. It won’t bother Tasleet.

The precedents, I find, tend up hold up in these Royal Ascot features (they have been going a long time) and it’s hard to look beyond Sir Michael Stoute’s Dartmouth (Dubawi) in the Hardwicke Stakes (Gr 2, 1m4f). He did win the race last year to give Stoute three straight and seven of the past 11 editions of the Hardwicke.

The Chester staying races are also often a good pointer to this race and, on that basis, the one at value might well be Western Hymn (High Chaparral) who won the Ormonde Stakes (Gr 3, 1m5.5f) on 12 May.

An intriguing Chesham Stakes (Listed, 7f) open the card. The Aidan O’Brien trained filly September (Deep Impact) will be short but is entitled to be. She won, on debut, by 5.5 lengths from Himmah (Intikhab) whose form ties in with Thursday’s Norfolk Stakes (Gr 2, 5f) winner Sioux Nation (Scat Daddy).

Nine of the past 11 Chesham winners have been having start two, coming off a debut maiden run (seven of those winners) and while fillies doesn’t often win it was this stable who last did so with Maybe (Galileo) in 2011.

This afternoon’s action, closer to home, also holds a great deal of interest with an extremely competitive program at Flemington. As I’ve noted before, never bet at Flemington without having a look at the track map which is posted here: http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html.

Assuming a level playing field (or middle to outside favoured) the ever consistent and gritty Ashlor (Hard Spun) looks hard to beat at a realistic price in race two with Wilde Gem (Equiano) something of a wildcard at big odds.

Again, assuming the same regarding the track, I’m happy to stay with Tshahitsi (Clangalang) despite the weight and the draw suggesting to many he can’t win. I feel those factors will make an attractive price (possibly better than $4) for a horse whose last win suggested he’ll win better races. Save your stake on Cannyescent (Canny Lad).

Many moons ago, on my first racing expedition to the UK, the Herald-Sun’s Matthew Stewart offered me the following propitious salutation.

I found then in the 1990s and early 2000s that, at large, the English punter was much less sophisticated than his Australian counterpart. No account was seemingly taken of track bias. Horses with obvious winning form but with an unfashionable trainer – jockey combination were invariably three times the right price. There was an obsession... Read More

Steve Considers The Achievements Of Darren Weir This Season

Not, alas, that I know how many he has. I can only take a guess. And this musing is not confined to Weir. I’d be curious to know how many horses each trainer has – a strike rate of winners to individual horses. Another benchmark by which we may judge them. I wonder how many... Read More

It’s hard to believe that it’s now 14 years since Choisir blazed the sprint trail to Royal Ascot. Steve reflects.

There has arguably never been a better front-running straight track sprinter than Choisir and he ably demonstrated that twice, in five days, at the Royal Meeting. Racing Post journalist Graham Dench recently described his presence as ‘intimidating’ and wrote of his performances ‘changing the nature of international sprinting for the next decade or so’. His... Read More

Steve looks at Coolmore’s gun three-year-old sprinter Caravaggio, who could be headed to the Everest.

Steve looks at Coolmore’s gun three-year-old sprinter Caravaggio (Scat Daddy) who, this week, has been touted as a possible Everest (1200m) runner. I’m not too sure about the unbeaten son of Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) making an appearance at Royal Randwick, in October, with the adjustment on the Weight-For-Age scale for a Northern Hemisphere three-year-old (soon... Read More

Steve looks at Coolmore’s gun three-year-old sprinter Caravaggio (Scat Daddy) who, this week, has been touted as a possible Everest (1200m) runner.

However, he is expected to be at Royal Ascot in two weeks time and the collection of three-year-old sprinters primed for the Royal meeting may well be of greater interest than most other races – including a St James’s Palace Stakes (Gr 1, 1m) rematch between Churchill (Galileo) and the possibly still untapped Barney Roy... Read More

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