Dashing a huge chance in Caulfield Cup
Andrew Balding-trained raider, now part-owned by Sir Owen Glenn’s Go Bloodstock, shapes as a major player in today’s feature
Nobody is paying him any regard. He continues to drift in the betting and even his trainer says he’s more a Melbourne Cup (Gr 1, 3200m) horse.
However, to quote the late and great Fred Dagg (John Clarke) you would be a “fool to yourself and a burden to others” if you didn’t have a couple of dollars on the grossly underestimated Dashing Willoughby (Nathaniel) in today’s Caulfield Cup (Gr 1, 2400m).
The Andrew Balding-trained gelding is the best value runner in the race, albeit one in which prognostications may be complicated by the forecast of up to 10 millimetres of rain today.
Save for the possibility that the 2019 (Epsom) Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck (Galileo) may be simply superior – a prospect diminished by the anticipated rain if indeed it’s a deluge – it looks a wide-open Caulfield Cup which may mimic last year when just a length and three quarters separated the first six to finish.
Nonetheless, racing is all about having an opinion and Dashing Willoughby is the horse over the odds, trading at as much as $30 on the eve of the race. Toffee Tongue (Tavistock), Warning (Declaration Of War) and Chapada (Bullet Train) look the other value runners albeit with Verry Elleegant (Zed) a justifiable favourite if it’s wet.
Dashing Willoughby is not without early speed and can take advantage of barrier one. An in-form Michael Walker (who opted for this horse ahead of Prince Of Arran on whom he’s had great success) rides and there is no jockey with a better record of taking advantage of inside barriers – riding for luck and finding it when necessary – in major races. Plus there’s enough evidence to say he’ll handle Australian soft ground.
But the key is that his form is simply great in three runs this year after being gelded. He led throughout first-up in the Buckhounds Stakes (Listed, 1m 4f) at this distance. Second and third have not raced since; fourth was Trueshan (Planteur), who’s since won twice and had little luck in the Ebor.
He then won the Henry II Stakes at Sandown beating Spanish Mission (Noble Mission) who, interestingly, thereafter joined Balding’s team and has since won twice. Note that Spanish Mission and Trueshan are among those taking on Stradivarius (Sea The Stars) in tonight’s Qipco Champions Long Distance Cup (Gr 2, 2m) at Ascot.
Then on the worst (inside) part of the track he was a more than sound fourth in the Lonsdale Cup (Gr 2, 2m) at York, finishing just behind Nayef Road (Galileo) who’d previously, on his preferred good ground, run Stradivarius to a length so the form ties in with Anthony Van Dyck. Dashing Willoughby profiles very similarly to Trip To Paris (Champs Elysees) who stretched Mongolian Khan (Holy Roman Emperor) in 2015.
While Balding told Racenet his stayer’s main aim is the Melbourne Cup, he did note that “Dashing Willoughby’s European form would be quite a bit stronger than Duretto’s so I’d hope he could be very competitive.” Balding’s Duretto (Manduro) ran fourth to Best Solution (Kodiac) in the 2018 Caulfield Cup. The Kingsclere trainer, interestingly, also originally prepared Cup entrants Master Of Wine (Maxios) and Le Don De Vie (Leroidesanimaux).
It is more likely than not that at least one of the visitors will feature in the finish. We’ve had five northern hemisphere-trained winners since All The Good (Diesis) rejuvenated international interest in the race with his win in 2008. In the past eight years there’s been no fewer than 11 northern hemisphere newcomers (either trained there or here) finish top three and they’ve provided two of the top three on three occasions in the past four years.
The key local form constant in that time has been the Turnbull Stakes (Gr 1, 2000m) and, in terms of winners, that’s been the four-year-old mares running well in the Flemington race and dropping significantly in weight for the Cup. That plainly makes the case for Toffee Tongue while Warning arguably turned in the best performance in the Turnbull.
Perhaps Toffee Tongue was a touch flattered by a rails run in the Turnbull but I’d say it was the run you had to see to suggest she’d peak for this as you would expect a four-year-old mare (with classic form last season) to do.
Trainer Chris Waller concurred on Radio RSN: “She’s done what you’d hope she’d have done. We know she gets the distance, she’s been set for the race and she’s reasonably weighted.”
I have absolutely no knock on the Turnbull winner Verry Elleegant who would relish soft ground but she will start favourite and continue to shorten. Good luck to you if you backed her early. She is a last-start winner unbeaten at the distance and boasts four wins and two seconds – both behind Addeybb (Pivotal) – on rain affected ground at 2000 metres and beyond.
Addeyyb’s form is arguably superior to any of the visitors here. He runs tonight in the Qipco Champions Stakes (Gr 1, 1m 2f). While no mare older than four has won since Mannerism (Amyntor) in 1992; no high class older mare has competed since Makybe Diva (Desert King) was beaten a nose by Elvstroem (Danehill) in 2004.
“She’s met very good horses over the past six months and produced her best form in terms of consistency. Her form has been franked by Addeybb and she’s unbeaten at 2400 metres, winning the Oaks and the Tancred convincingly,” said Waller, who is also represented by Finche (Frankel), fifth last year and sound in The Turnbull.
About once in every ten years – on average – the Herbert Power (Gr 2, 2400m) throws up a good odds winner of the Caulfield Cup and this year’s obvious candidate is Chapada, who is one of just four last start winners in the race (assuming Le Don De Vie doesn’t get a run).
Trainer Mike Moroney told ANZ Bloodstock News his only reservation would be the forecast rain: “He’s going well and I think he’s the only horse who’s beaten the handicapper, apart from Anthony Van Dyck who should probably have 62 (kilograms), but ideally we’d want good ground.
“The internationals look a strong group but often you never know, until after the race, which ones have travelled and which ones haven’t. They’re training on a different surface here and some will adjust and some will go sore. You just don’t know,” said the Melbourne Cup winning trainer, who added that he expected Tofane (Ocean Park) to run “extremely well” in The Everest (1200m) in Sydney.
The visitors and the return of last year’s placegetters certainly make this an intriguing Caulfield Cup from top to bottom. Only a mug would risk Aidan O’Brien’s Anthony Van Dyck and son Joseph’s Buckhurst (Australia) but I’ll happily wear that tag as I believe both are over-bet.
O’Brien senior’s travelling man T J Comerford says the Derby winner will handle “our” soft ground but the only glitches on his form card are on rain-affected tracks so it has to be a concern.
Obviously he’s a very good horse but the weight and wide draw are also risk factors. And it might be that his form is just a touch overhyped. The Derby win on his CV has seduced most commentators but how much relevance does that have 17 months later?
His second in the Coronation Cup (Gr 1, 1m 4f) is solid enough but he was second, he didn’t beat Ghaiyyath (Dubawi). A generally out of form bunch straggled in behind – bar Stradivarius, of course, whom he then beat in the Prix Foy (Gr 2, 2400m) but Stradivarius is a 4000 metres, not 2400 metres, performer.
There’s every chance young Joseph and Mr Williams will be too clever for all us, as they were with Rekindling (High Chaparral) in the 2017 Melbourne Cup, but the reality is that Buckhurst has not won at the distance; arguably, he has too much weight on Irish Group 3 form and his three wins of note are all 2000 metres right-handed at The Curragh.
Vow And Declare (Declaration Of War) and Mirage Dancer (Frankel) return after running second and third respectively in 2019 but not since Columnist, in 1947, has a previous year’s placegetter won the Caulfield Cup.
The argument for Vow And Declare is that he looks the type of horse who could emulate Dunaden (Nicobar) and Viewed (Scenic) by winning the year after a Melbourne Cup victory. I’d like to have seen more from him in the Turnbull but that was an odd race and Descarado (High Chaparral) did win this, albeit on a heavy track, off a 14th in the Turnbull.
Mirage Dancer was sound enough in The Metropolitan (Gr 1, 2400m) where, despite a very minor baulk in the straight, he had a charmed run. The Metropolian form had a brief honeymoon with Railings (Zabeel) in 2005 and Tawqeet (Kingmambo) in 2006 but since then not one Metropolitan winner has been placed next start, including four who tackled this race.
The evergreen Prince Of Arran (Shirocco), True Self (Oscar) and emergencies San Huberto (Speightstown) and Le Don De Vie complete the international line-up. The Charlie Fellowes-trained Prince Of Arran has the excellent Australian form of two wins and four placings from six starts. He comes through the same lead-up race as last year and while beaten further this time around, he ran virtually the same time. Just think the Melbourne Cup is more his race. Likewise, True Self.