Meet the man who bought the dam of a Melbourne Cup contender for 1,000gns
One thousand pounds doesn’t go very far in the breeding industry. It might pay for a few months’ worth of boarding fees, one or two visits from the vet, or a nomination to a minor National Hunt sire.
For Eric Boumans, though, that relatively insignificant sum was enough to buy the dam of a credible contender for one of the biggest races in the world, the Melbourne Cup (Gr 1, 3200m) at Flemington a week today.
The Netherlands native, who works as a stud hand for Juddmonte at its Estcourt Estate in Gloucestershire, purchased the winning Mizzen Mast (Cozzene) mare Likelihood for the minimum selling price of 1,000gns at last year’s Tattersalls February Sale.
Juddmonte-bred Likelihood is a true blueblood, being a half-sister to one Grade 1 winner in Seek Again (Speightstown) and out of another in Light Jig (Danehill), but it’s not entirely surprising that she went for a song as none of her four offspring of racing age had won, and she was offered not in foal to Tasleet (Showcasing) after being covered by the sire in 2021.
Since then, however, her five-year-old son Future History (Showcasing) – described in the catalogue as merely having placed twice at three – won two races in France before being shipped to Australia, where in recent weeks he has landed the Bart Cummings (Gr 1, 2520) at Flemington and run close third in Friday night’s Moonee Valley Gold Cup (Gr 2, 2500m).
The son of Showcasing (Oasis Dream), trained by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, has a guaranteed spot in the Flemington showpiece next week thanks to his victory in the Bart Cummings, and is regarded as a live outsider for the contest. He will carry the minimum weight and Hollie Doyle is booked to ride.
So how did Boumans do it? Well, the rags-to-riches story has its roots in an impulsive midlife career change a few years ago.
“I was working for a pharmaceutical company at home in the Netherlands and when it got taken over by Americans the culture changed a lot, and it wasn’t really my style,” he explains.
“I’ve always liked working with horses, and had some based here in England with a mate of mine, so when I became fed up with work I thought I was at the age that I could change tack and do something different that I really enjoyed, or I’d never do it.
“So I turned my hand to stud work – first at Stanley House Stud for a season, and now at Juddmonte since the summer of 2018. I worked with Likelihood for a few months here, until she was sold at the end of the year for 55,000gns, and I always really liked her.
“I love grey mares anyway, but she’s also a bit of a character, and she has that fantastic pedigree, with her dam Light Jig being a Grade 1 winner by Danehill and her granddam Nashmeel being a Group 2 winner and Group 1 runner-up by Blushing Groom.
“I was a bit gutted that she was sold, to be honest. She made far too much for me to be able to buy her, but I said there and then that if she ever came up for sale again I’d do my best to buy her.”
Boumans seized the opportunity when it presented itself at the midwinter mixed sale in Newmarket at the start of 2022.
“She was Lot 7 at Tattersalls and I thought, well, the earlier they’re in the sale the cheaper they usually are,” he says. “I said to some of my colleagues ‘I think I’m going to buy her for a grand’ and they started laughing. But she was barren to Tasleet, she hadn’t produced a winner yet, and she didn’t look her best.
“I remembered what she looked like when she was really well, so I thought there might be a bit of improvement in her. Sure enough, there was no one in the ring for her, and no sign of any interest, so I waited a bit, bid once, and got her. I was extremely happy.”
Boumans made another shrewd move after signing the docket, as he promptly booked Likelihood into Havana Grey (Havana Gold), just as the sire’s earliest two-year-old runners were about to put him on the path to becoming the commercial sensation he is today.
Don’t go thinking the mating was a stab in the dark, chosen purely because he was cheap and cheerful back then. As you will see, the mare’s new owner put an awful lot of thought into it.
“Havana Grey hadn’t done anything by then, of course, but I’d seen some foals and yearlings by him, and he was just the type of horse I thought would suit Likelihood,” says Boumans. “Her family tends to be later maturing; they take a lot of time, just like Future History has done, so I wanted something more precocious.
“Future History is a huge horse as well – 17 hands, maybe even more – so I thought I needed more of a compact, blocky sprinter like Havana Grey in order to put less size in the foal.”
There was also a compelling case for the mating on pedigree.
Boumans continues: “Likelihood’s half-sister Merry Jaunt bred a good filly called Companion, who is by Dark Angel, and further back in the pedigree is Fev Rover, who is by Dark Angel’s son Gutaifan.
“Havana Grey is out of a Dark Angel mare, and I actually think he is more like Dark Angel than his sire Havana Gold. Companion and Fev Rover also both ran at two, and were decent at that age, so that gave me hope that the foal out of Likelihood might be a little more precocious than most of the family.
“All in all I thought Havana Grey ticked a lot of boxes, and that’s why I went for him. Likelihood got in foal to him straight away, and then he soon got going, making it look like the right decision.”
Likelihood produced a filly by Whitsbury Manor Stud’s bright young thing at Batsford Stud in March. The bonny bay foal will be consigned by Culworth Grounds Stud to Tattersalls next month.
She ought to be popular with pinhookers and end users alike, being a well bred daughter of the sire of the moment and the recipient of two monumental pedigree updates, with Future History becoming a Group 3 winner and Fev Rover (Gutaifan) adding the EP Taylor Stakes (Gr 1, 10f) to her tally since publication of the catalogue.
Likelihood, now 12 years old, is herself enjoying the expert and affectionate care of seasoned owner and breeder Marie Steele in the Cotswolds.
“Marie does an excellent job with the horses,” says Boumans. “The mare looks a much happier and healthier individual these days.”
Likelihood is currently in foal to March Hare Stud-based 2,000 Guineas (Gr 1, 1m) runner-up Tip Two Win, another son of Dark Angel (Acclamation).
“It’s the same reason: Dark Angel,” says Boumans. “Havana Grey was too expensive for me this year, as is Dark Angel himself and Mehmas, who is bred along similar lines. I did try to get her into Harry Angel but I couldn’t get a deal that I liked, so I had to find something else.
“Having said that, I do really like Tip Two Win. He’s a nice looking horse, not dissimilar to Havana Grey, and he was very good in the 2,000 Guineas and other races before that. He had some turn of foot, coming from last to finish second at Newmarket.
“Also his dam is by More Than Ready and his second dam is by Awesome Again, and both have better than average nicks with Mizzen Mast. So I’m really looking forward to the foal as I think the mating should work well – even if it’s not commercial.”
Boumans’ shortlist of sires for Likelihood this year was drawn up with no idea that Future History would develop into a star of the international racing scene.
He had won back-to-back conditions races at Deauville and Clairefontaine but he beat only one rival when stepped up to Group 3 company by his first trainer Henri Devin in the summer of 2022, and was sold to Nick Bell, Peter Trainor and Hurworth Bloodstock for 140,000gns at the Tattersalls Autumn Horses in Training Sale later that year.
He then disappeared off the radar until this summer.
“I had no clue that Future History might win a Group 3, I thought he would be Listed level at best,” says Boumans. “I followed him after his sale and he appeared on Michael Bell’s list of horses in training but then all of sudden he disappeared off of it. Uh-oh, something’s gone wrong with him, I thought.
“It wasn’t until I got a proof of the Havana Grey filly’s catalogue page from Tattersalls that I saw he had run in Australia and come second, so I was then able to look him up on Australian racing websites, and follow him. It was a pleasant surprise that he was still in training, let alone that he was running well in good races.”
So will Boumans send Likelihood to a fancier sire next year now that he knows she is the dam of a high-class performer?
“I don’t know,” he says with a sharp intake of breath. “If the Havana Grey filly sells for a little more than my foals usually do, I might, but it’s difficult as I don’t have much spare cash to spend on nominations. Most of my money goes to the horses anyway.
“Now that she’s the dam of a Group winner, perhaps I’ll be able to get a foal share to Dark Angel or Mehmas. That would be good. I’ll try to get her to a better proven sire, that’s for sure. I wouldn’t entirely rule out going back to Tip Two Win if I like the foal next year, either. That was the original plan. I just don’t know yet.”
Boumans is in a similar quandary with whether he would sell Likelihood herself, now that her value has increased considerably.
“It’s a difficult question,” he says. “As I said, I really liked her from the moment I came to work at Juddmonte, and I’m very happy to have her again. But I can’t say I wouldn’t sell her if someone came and offered ridiculous money for her. I’d be daft not to sell.”
Whether Boumans sells Likelihood or not, his decision certainly won’t have been made on the grounds of turning a quick profit.
He is clearly deriving a purer form of pleasure from his association with the mare and her Melbourne Cup-bound son: the thrill of following the gelding in his races; the satisfaction in solving matings puzzles; and, above all, the love of the horses themselves.
“I’ve been watching Future History’s races in Australia and cheering him on as if I own him,” he says. “It’s very exciting. Breeding involves a lot of headaches and disappointment, so when something like this happens it keeps you going.
“It’s like life generally. You’ve always got to have hope, and things to look forward to.”