Music Magnate well placed to rule Al Quoz Sprint
The Bjorn Baker–trained gelding, who’s won his past four starts on Good 3-rated tracks and won his past three first-up runs, looks a more likely winner – in my view – than the two other Australian runners, Faatinah and Illustrious Lad.
One, because he’s probably better than them and two, because he’s drawn wide (barrier 12) where it looks to be the epicentre of the race. With the bulk of speed and the better chances drawn seven and wider, you’d imagine they’d either group in the middle of the straight track or come to the grandstand side.
This will leave Faatinah (1) and Illustrious Lad (4) with it all to do as the other runners drawn inside six do not have high early speed – unless they opt to gradually ease to the outside.
Music Magnate is capable of leading the outside division, if so desired, or taking the trail behind the two US speedsters Conquest Tsunami and Richard’s Boy and, possibly, Hit The Bid. It will then be a question of holding out the Charlie Appleby–trained closers Blue Point and Jungle Cat.
Blue Point is the least exposed runner and may well prove too good, stepping up to a preferred 1200 metres, but he is ridiculously short odds. Music Magnate and the ‘wildcard’ Conquest Tsunami represent betting value with Jungle Cat and Appleby’s third runner Baccarat in the mix for multiple bets.
Conquest Tsunami finished 2017 with failures on soft ground and then on tapeta but now looks transformed. In 2018, he’s had two firm ground turf runs at 1300 metres and won decisively. His most recent win came when thrashing Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Stormy Liberal in the Daytona Stakes (Gr 3, 6.5f) on his first start for trainer Peter Miller.
I genuinely feel that fortune might favour the brave Baker who made the bold decision early to run Music Magnate in Dubai.
Hopefully he can emulate Ortensia who won the Al Quoz Sprint in 2012 and Buffering who was successful in 2016. Our only other runner has been Grahame Begg’s All Silent who finished fifth, beaten two and a quarter lengths in 2010, so there’s not much wrong with the Australian strike rate.
Here’s how I see the line-up:
FAATINAH: Rated 113 – A narrow debut Dubai winner over Baccarat but then beaten three lengths behind that horse on 17 February without apparent excuse. Races handy, good straight form and meets Baccarat two kilograms better but a notch below best Australian sprinters and would need breaks his way.
WASHINGTON DC: 110 – settled long last when a close eighth to Stormy Liberal in Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint in November. Ran seventh in this race last year (off similar break) but the track was playing soft. Two wins, two seconds from five starts at 1200 metres on good ground but most recent win was in modest edition of Phoenix Sprint Stakes. Dry track form says possibly over the odds but needs inside to be the place to be.
LIBRISA BREEZE 119 – Group One Ascot 1200 metre winner on soft ground in October (Qipco Champions Sprint) – beating a high-class field in Tasleet, Caravaggio, Harry Angel, The Tin Man. Strong form. Not raced since. Settles back, handles good but arguably best on soft ground which is my reservation – along with being drawn inside.
ILLUSTRIOUS LAD 112 – Group Two winner. Poor in Oakleigh Plate when resumed, beaten nine lengths. Not many bounce off such a run to win a feature, notwithstanding that recent trial performance suggests all is well. Handy straight track record.
STORMY LIBERAL 114 – Had the run of the race, stalking speed, when a 40/1 winner of winner Breeders‘ Cup Turf Sprint over 1000 metres in November. Then beaten 11 lengths behind Mr Stunning in Hong Kong Sprint before soundly beaten two and half lengths behind stablemate Conquest Tsunami when second in a Grade Three at Santa Anita when resumed in February.
HOLDING GOLD 112 – Settled long way back when beaten by a length and three quarters in Breeders‘ Cup Turf Sprint in November. Since won conditions race over 1100 metres at Fair Grounds. Doubt good enough or strong enough at 1200 metre trip.
RICHARD’S BOY 113 – Raced right on speed when head second to stablemate Stormy Liberal in Breeders‘ Cup Turf Sprint in November. Two well beaten thirds in three runs since. Best win to date was at Listed level and was every chance two and a half lengths fifth in this race last year (albeit on softish ground).
BACCARAT 111 – Has a good record in Dubai. Slow to begin and ran on when three and a half lengths fourth to Jungle Cat on 10 March. Can race handily when he doesn’t miss break – as was case when he thrashed Faatinah at course and distance on 17 February. Failed in this last year but were legitimate excuses. Best on good ground.
CONQUEST TSUNAMI 112 – Last start Grade Three Santa Anita 1300 metre winner, thrashing stablemate Stormy Liberal on his first run for the stable. That followed a similarly easy win over course and distance. Has high speed.
JUNGLE CAT 114 – Strong winner over 1400 metres two starts back and bolted in lead-up Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint at course and distance. Races handy; likes good ground but handles some give. Ran fourth last year, beaten by one and a quarter, on softish track. Rallied late after looking to be under pressure. Also ran fourth to Buffering the year before when race was run over 1000 metres.
MAGICAL MEMORY 110 – Group Two Duke of York winner in 2016. Good fresh, capable wet or dry, settles off the speed – competitive on best form but hard to see winning. Not raced since October when three and three quarter lengths to Blue Point over 1200 metres at Ascot. Rates below best UK sprinters.
MUSIC MAGNATE 115 – Group One winner of 2016 Doomben 10,000. Won two recent barrier trials and races well fresh. Can race on speed. Unknown straight but terrific record on top of the ground; drawn (seemingly) the right spot and good enough at best.
BLUE POINT 116 – Two Group Three UK sprint wins last year. Won a Group Two at two. Best at 1200m. Ran on well when head second to Ertijaal over 1000 metres at Meydan on 22 February, at first run since Ascot 1200 metre win on good to soft last October. Can race close to speed but likely to take sit. Capable all conditions.
HIT THE BID 112 – Ran fairly but no threat when just over three lengths third to Ertijaal in 22 February lead-up. Will be prominent early but failed only two previous attempts beyond 1000 metres.