Premium prices point to premium performance
The rush of on-track success for one-time high-priced yearling progeny of Almanzor implies a strong correlation between sales appeal and on-track performance.
From the moment the first New Zealand-bred crop of Cambridge Stud’s Almanzor (Wootton Bassett) hit the yearling sales ring in 2021, it was clear that, commercially at least, he was going to make the grade.
At the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale, his three yearlings averaged $506,667, and by the end of 2021, the New Zealand-based, French-bred stallion had the highest average of any freshman, with more than $11.7 million in receipts through 62 yearlings sold at an average of $182,594. When you consider that he stood his first season in 2018 at NZ$30,000, it was a terrific return on investment.
But with that first crop having just turned four, how has that ROI panned out for those who invested at the sales? As things stand, with 33 winners, including three stakes winners – from 77 runners – that first crop has already won over $4.6 million in prize-money.
That’s a promising start for a stallion whose progeny have proven they are much better at three than two, and who, as a rule, are more adept as milers/stayers than sprinters.
When you start paying specific attention to the progeny of a sire, you can’t help but notice patterns. It could be anything from a common feature/colours, to how they like to race, to preference for certain types of tracks or surfaces.
What has become apparent in By The Numbers’ observation of the progeny of the first crop of Almanzor is how the yearling price of his now four-year-olds has become a useful predictor of their ability on the racetrack.
Of course, yearling price should, by its very definition, be a predictor of future talent. Otherwise, we can pack up the buying bench and go home, but in Almanzor’s case, the quality really stands out.
To date, Almanzor has had ten southern hemisphere-bred stakes performers from that first crop. Nine of those horses were sold either above his median yearling price. The average yearling price of those ten horses was $299,720, $117,000 higher than his overall average for that year.
A quick note to say that for the purpose of this article, all yearling prices have been standardised to Australian dollars, in order to provide consistency in comparison between stallions and countries. It has also considered only yearling prices, not weanling or two-year-old sales, to manage the size and scope of the data set.
Back to Almanzor; his three stakes winners from that crop, Manzoice, who resumes this weekend, Dynastic and Cheval D’Or, were all among his top 12 highest-priced first crop yearlings and all of which cost more than AU$300,000. Seven of those top 12 have either been placed or won at stakes level; while a further two, including Wednesday’s Doomben winner Signita, have been winners.
Race performance of Almanzor’s top 12 priced first-crop yearlings
| Horse | Price | Performance |
| Futile Resistance | AU$800,000 | Placed |
| Summons | NZ$560,000 | Placed |
| Holymanz | AU$400,000 | Winner, G3 placed |
| Andalus | NZ$400,000 | Winner, G1 placed |
| Cheval D’Or | NZ$400,000 | Group 3 winner |
| Signita | AU$380,000 | Winner |
| Zilzie Lad | AU$360,000 | Winner |
| Virtuous Circle | AU$360,000 | Winner, G1 placed |
| Piercing Sky | AU$360,000 | Unraced |
| Marvelouz | NZ$380,000 | Winner, G3 placed |
| Manzoice | AU$340,000 | Group 1 winner |
| Dynastic | NZ$360,000 | Listed winner, G1 placed |
So how does this measure up to Almanzor’s contemporaries, those Australasian stallions who entered stud in 2018 and whose first crop have just turned four.
Russian Revolution (Snitzel) has been the most prolific of that crop of sires and was crowned Australia’s champion first season sire in 2021-22 and leading second-season sire last campaign. He has already had 64 first–crop winners, compared to Almanzor, who, as mentioned, has 33 from his first NZ crop.
With much a bigger first foal crop, the son of Snitzel had 101 yearlings sell in that 2021 season, at an average of $109,234 and a median of $100,000. The average price of those who have since won races is $140,276, which is 28.4 per cent higher than his overall average. Almanzor’s corresponding ‘winners’ premium’ is lower at 22.2 per cent.
It’s slightly different when we look at their best horses. To date, Russian Revolution’s first crop has produced four stakes winners, three of which went through the yearling sales at an average of $168,333, 54.3 per cent higher than his broader average. Almanzor’s stakes winners average is $356,324, a premium of 95 per cent.
It is worth noting that all Russian Revolution’s three ‘sold’ stakes winners were inside his 25 top-priced yearlings for that 2021 season.
Yarraman Park’s Hellbent (I Am Invincible) has the second most first-crop winners from that cohort of stallions, behind only Russian Revolution, with 54.
That first crop averaged $119,581 as yearlings, with a median of $100,000. The average price of those who have since gone on to be winners is only slightly more, $120,501.
His stakes winner from that crop, Magic Time, was passed in through the ring, but if we filter by his stakes-placegetters which did sell, of which there are seven, we see they averaged $135,000. Only one of those horses, Warby, was in Hellbent’s top 20 highest-priced yearlings from 2021.
Merchant Navy (Fastnet Rock), now at Kooringal Stud, was the other subsequent stakes-producing sire of that crop to have his first-crop yearlings average more than $100,000 in 2021, in his case $117,135. The average price of those who have now gone on to be winners was $149,190, giving him a ‘winners’ premium’ of 27.4 per cent.
Merchant Navy’s only stakes performer is the Group 1 winner Royal Merchant and she cost $160,000, officially the 24th most expensive horse from a crop of 91 which were sold.
We looked at the 19 sires of that class of 2018 who have subsequently produced stakes winners to determine which of them had the highest ‘winners’ premium’, that is the percentage difference between yearling price of subsequent winners compared to their overall average.
The top-ranked sire on that metric was Gold Standard (Sebring), now at Widden. His first crop, conceived at the now defunct Spendthrift Australia, averaged $10,700 through the 2021 yearling sales.
The four winners he has had from that crop sold at an average $19,500, a number heavily influenced by Sheeza Belter, who, at $50,000, was not only his highest–priced yearling, but would go on to become a Group 1 winner. Gold Standard’s winners’ premium stands at 82.2 per cent.
Highland Reel (Galileo), who spent five seasons at Swettenham Stud, is another stallion whose best future progeny provided a premium in the ring. His average in that 2021 season was $46,963, but the average price when you filter by his subsequent winners was $75,720, a 60.2 per cent premium. Six of his top 10 most expensive horses have been winners, including Listed winner High Approach.
The other stakes-producing sire with a winners’ premium’ of over 50 per cent is Aquis’s The Mission (Choisir). He has produced 20 winners from that first crop, which averaged a relatively humble $19,198 through the yearling sales ring. The average price of his subsequent winners was $26,533, a list that includes his Group 3 winner Yellow Brick, who cost $20,000.
There were only two sires in the list of 19 where the average price of their winners was less than the average overall first crop yearling price. Invader’s (Snitzel) overall average was $91,302, but filtered by those who have won to date in their careers, that figure stands at $87,968.
Caravaggio (Scat Daddy) only had one season at Coolmore Australia and there have been 27 subsequent winners from those offered as yearlings. That 27 averaged $75,312 through the ring, compared to Caravaggio’s overall average of $76,709 from that year.
That is not necessarily a negative reflection on those sires, just that, when it came to selecting future winners, the market didn’t tend to get it right.
That’s the great challenge for any investor, and the great mystery of the sales ring. Given the data presented above, it would appear that it is an easier task with the progeny of some sires than it is with others.
Yearling price comparison between subsequent winners of selected sires who entered stud in 2018
| Stallion | First crop winners | Average Yearling Price | Average yearling price of subsequent winners | Winners’ premium |
| Almanzor | 33 | $182,594 | $222,854 | 22.0% |
| Merchant Navy | 37 | $117,135 | $149,190 | 27.4% |
| Russian Revolution | 64 | $109,234 | $140,276 | 28.4% |
| Hellbent | 54 | $119,581 | $120,501 | 0.8% |
| Pariah | 37 | $97,681 | $115,900 | 18.7% |
| Ribchester | 14 | $81,000 | $115,894 | 43.1% |
| Impending | 39 | $81,480 | $104,418 | 28.2% |
| Satono Aladdin | 18 | $69,144 | $101,963 | 47.5% |
| Invader | 33 | $91,302 | $87,968 | -3.7% |
| Time Test | 26 | $60,578 | $76,876 | 26.9% |
| Caravaggio | 37 | $76,709 | $75,312 | -1.8% |
| Highland Reel | 24 | $46,963 | $75,250 | 60.2% |
| War Decree | 18 | $45,190 | $53,668 | 18.8% |
| Supido | 28 | $45,963 | $47,947 | 4.3% |
| Jukebox | 14 | $27,903 | $35,341 | 26.7% |
| Overshare | 13 | $29,357 | $31,750 | 8.2% |
| The Mission | 20 | $17,198 | $26,533 | 54.3% |
| Derryn | 14 | $22,929 | $25,033 | 9.2% |
| Gold Standard | 10 | $10,700 | $19,500 | 82.2% |
* In Australian dollars