Saxon Warrior storms to the head of Derby betting after fine Guineas victory
Despite the perfect racing surface, the first two Classics of the year produced contrasting results. Aidan O’Brien continued his domination over the 2000 Guineas (Gr 1, 1m) when winning the race for the ninth time with the still-unbeaten Saxon Warrior (Deep Impact), who quickened up in fine style entering the Dip and was worth more than the winning margin of a length and a half implies. He is now a warm favourite for next month’s Derby (Gr 1, 1m4f) and while his dam, Group One-winning juvenile Maybe (Galileo), looked a non-stayer when finishing fifth in the Oaks (Gr 1, 1m4f), this colt shapes like he could improve for middle-distances and he will prove very difficult to beat if that turns out to be the case.
If the victory of Saxon Warrior was entirely predictable then the 66/1 success of Billesdon Brook (Champs Elysees) in the 1000 Guineas (Gr 1, 1m) could not have been less obvious beforehand, the Richard Hannon-trained filly going into the race with an official rating of 99 but producing a wide-margin career best in the region of 18lb superior to that figure. She comprehensively reversed the Nell Gwyn Stakes (Gr 3, 7f) form with the fifth, Altyn Orda (Kyllachy), and the sixth, Soliloquy (Dubawi), skipping off the quick ground to account for previous Group One winners Laurens (Siyouni) and Happily (Galileo) in a piece of form that is straightforward to assess from the second horse downwards.
Red Verdon showcases Melbourne Cup potential in Jockey Club Stakes
From an Australian perspective, Red Verdon (Lemon Drop Kid) was the biggest eye-catcher this week as the Ed Dunlop-trained entire produced an excellent effort to finish runner-up to Defoe (Dalakhani) in the Jockey Club Stakes (Gr 2, 1m4f) on Saturday. Although the overall piece of form looks weak for the grade, with three of the five participants running below par, Red Verdon seemed to perform to his official mark of 107 and certainly produced his best performance since winning the Wild Flower Stakes (Listed, 1m4f) at Kempton in November.
Although no match for the winner, who hit the line strongly to score by three and three quarter lengths, Red Verdon impressed with the manner he travelled through the race. Settled in last place off the relatively modest early fractions, Red Verdon was produced by the in-form and confident James Doyle with a sweeping move against the stand-side rail five furlongs from home, injecting a timely impetus of pace into the contest and briefly looking to have his four rivals in trouble. While he could not sustain his challenge once meeting the rising ground, Red Verdon kept on dourly to mark this down as a pleasing return to turf.
A high-class three-year-old, finishing fourth in the Derby prior to running second in the Grand Prix de Paris (Gr 1, 2400m), Red Verdon has been unable to match that level of form in subsequent seasons, but he looks a potential Melbourne Cup (Gr 1, 3200m) contender if connections can elevate his rating sufficiently high enough to secure a place in the line-up.
Such a campaign has already been mooted by his trainer, while Red Verdon carries the same colours as the legendary Melbourne Cup performer Red Cadeaux (Cadeaux Genereux) – those of Hong Kong-based owner Ronnie Arculli. A question mark remains over Red Verdon seeing out the 3200-metre trip – his sole outing at the distance produced a fourth-place finish in the All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes (2m) at Lingfield in March, beaten three-quarters of a length having been undone by sedate early fractions – but he shapes like an extreme test on turf will suit and he could develop into a live contender at Flemington.
On Sunday, the closing three-year-old handicap over 2000 metres is a traditionally-strong race and this year’s winner, He’s Amazing (Fastnet Rock), looks just the sort of progressive middle-distance type the Australian market has demanded so intensely at European horses-in-training sales in recent years.
Trained by Clive Cox, He’s Amazing finished an improved second in a novice stakes (1m) at Newbury on his reappearance and he stepped forward again switched to handicap company and upped in trip, travelling kindly off the muddling pace and knuckling down well in the closing stages to fend off the John-Ryan trained Midnight Wilde (Poet’s Voice) following a protracted duel inside the final furlong.
Despite this developing into a dash for home, the form looks solid for the level with the third home, Dukhan (Teofilo), having been narrowly denied over course and distance by a progressive rival last month while the fourth place went to Grecian Spirit (Teofilo), who was the pick of the paddock beforehand and he looks a physical specimen likely to an opening mark of 76 behind in time.
This was the first time He’s Amazing has raced on ground described as quicker than good, but he handled the faster surface with aplomb, while his tactical speed over middle-distances will prove a useful asset moving forward. A half-brother to US Grade One winner Belle Royale (Val Royale), he is likely to be highly sought after.
Earlier in the week, one-time Doncaster Mile (Gr 1, 1600m) starter Arod (Teofilo) returned to action in conditions company (7f) at Kempton, running second to Jallota (Rock Of Gibraltar) having been produced to lead approaching the final furlong only to be nabbed close to the line.
A winner of the Summer Mile Stakes (Gr 2, 1m) at Ascot when trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam, running to a Racing Post Rating of 121, Arod was unable to match that form on his six starts for Chris Waller, achieving his best effort when finishing runner-up in the L’Oreal Paris Stakes (Gr 3, 1400m) at Flemington in November 2016. A seven-year-old entire, Arod’s best days are probably behind him now.
Finally, the Hugo Palmer-trained Mootasadir (Dansili) confirmed himself to be smart prospect in the making when defying a 7lb penalty to land a novice stakes (1m1.5f) at Wolverhampton on Monday.
The three-year-old colt is out of the South African Grade One winner Mahbooba (Galileo), who in turn is a daughter of Australian winner Sogha (Red Ransom), and Mootasadir showed a good attitude to get the better of last-time-out winner Well Suited (Dandy Man) by a comfortable neck, despite needing to be rousted along passing the three-furlong marker.
Mootasadir is bred to be a better horse on turf, while his style of racing looks better suited to grass as well, and his profile is not too dissimilar to He’s Amazing. He is one to keep on the right side of in the coming months.