Steve looks at the fancies and various precedents to the four Hong Kong International races on Sunday
The verdict: Highland Reel (Galileo) is simply superior to his rivals here and he stretched out freely on the track on Friday morning to indicate he’s in good shape. Those to take with him in trifectas are Big Orange (Duke Of Marmalade); Satono Crown (Marju); Nuovo Record (Heart’s Cry) and perhaps Silverwave (Silver Frost).
THE SPRINT: International Group One status since 2002. Eleven Hong Kong trained winners from that year including nine who came through the Jockey Club Sprint (or equivalent lead-up race). Four had won the Jockey Club Sprint and three others placed. That race was trifectaed this year by Notlistnein’tome (Dylan Thomas), Lucky Bubbles (Sebring) and Aerovelocity (Pins).
Race run at 1200 metres since 2006. Eight of the ten winners, since then, have drawn between barriers five and nine.
Ten Australian-bred winners since race first run 1999. There’s been 15 Australian-trained runners since Falvelon (Alannon) won the race for the second year running in 2001. Only one has been placed – Apache Cat (Lion Cavern) who was beaten a half length into third place in 2008. Apache Cat, like this year’s runner Takedown (Stratum), came via the Winterbottom Stakes (Gr 1, 1200m) in Perth.
The verdict: Looks very open and no shock if there’s a length or two between the first seven or eight. I’m happy to respect the Jockey Club Sprint form and Notlistenin’tome I suspect will be over priced. On that form you have to also entertain Aerovelocity, Lucky Bubbles and the fitter duo Peniaphobia (Dandy Man) and Amazing Kids (Falkirk). I am definitely including Takedown and Rebel Dane (California Dane) with the latter just needing to get the right run. Preferences – Notlistenin’tome and Lucky Bubbles.
Hong Kong Mile: International Gr One status since 2000. Like the Sprint, has been Hong Kong dominated. Nine winners through the Jockey Club Mile (or equivalent) and eight of the nine finished in the first four in the lead-up including three winners.
Hong Kong-trained horses have won 12 of the past 16. The three Japanese winners ran first or second in the Mile Championship in Japan. Only two winners at double figure odds in the past ten years.
Six of the past seven winners have drawn nine or worse and five of those drew double figure gates.
The verdict: Logotype (Lohengrin) did beat the champion miler Maurice (Screen Hero) three starts back in the Yasuda Kinen. He’s run twice over further since. He will get great run on the speed and be strong. Like the Sprint, there are any number of other chances – Able Friend (Shamardal), Contentment (Hussonet), Beauty Only (Holy Roman Emperor), Helene Paragon (Polan), Neorealism (Neo Universe), Satono Aladdin (Deep Impact) and Sun Jewellery (Snitzel). Yes, that’s way too many. Perhaps, just have something on Logotype and Satono Aladdin.
Hong Kong Cup: International Group One status since 1999. A Shin Hikari (Deep Impact) won last year after finishing ninth in the Tenno Sho Autumn (Gr 1, 2000m) (he was 12th in that race this year). Previous four winners HK trained and through the Jockey Club Cup – after five straight overseas trained winners. Only three winners greater than 6/1 and six favourites have won since 1999.
A Shin Hikari led throughout from barrier 11 last year. Previous four winners had drawn gate one (three times) and gate three (once). Eight of the 12 winners, before that, from gates seven to 12 (with three from 12).
The verdict: Maurice (Screen Hero) is the superior animal and now well proven at the trip. Ryan Moore apparently says he’s better at 2000 metres than 1600 metres. This and The Vase are the two other races where we can narrow down the chances. A Shin Hikari is boom or bust. Had 14 starts for ten wins and four ‘nowheres’. Needs to be relaxed on raceday which applies to most of the Japanese runners. If Maurice were to be upset, then the most likely candidates in my view are Secret Weapon (Choisir) and Queen’s Ring (Manhattan Cafe).
Fast Facts: Tony Cruz is the most successful trainer at the HKIR with seven wins. He’s followed by John Moore who’s had 97 runners since 1988 for six wins, seven seconds and nine thirds.
With eight wins on the board, veteran French jockey Gerald Mosse has more HKIR victories than any other rider. He is also the only jockey to have won each of the four HKIR events at least once.
Overseas trained horses won three of the four Group Ones at the HKIR last year. They were Highland Reel, Maurice and A Shin Hikari who each run again this year. That was also the case was in 2010 when Snow Fairy (Intikhab) (Cup), J J The Jet Plane (Sprint) and Mastery (Vase).
A total of ten fillies and mares have won at the HKIR, the most recent Snow Fairy in the 2010 Hong Kong Cup.
France has produced more HKIR winners than any other visiting nation with a total of 14 victories, ten of which were achieved in the Hong Kong Vase.