Steve ponders the week of Royal Ascot and today’s racing
Lady Aurelia (Scat Daddy) is unlikely to be here I fancy; the weights and tyranny of distance considered. She is yet to be genuinely proven at 1200 metres (her one win at the distance came in a very soft race at Deauville against four others) and she beat up on average UK sprinters in the King’s Stand Stakes (Gr 1, 5f) despite the best efforts of local commentators to convince us otherwise. I could be on her in a Lightning!
Thomas Hobson (Halling) is too old and unlikely to be fast enough for the Melbourne Cup (Gr 1, 3200m). However, he just might win again tonight if he backs up in the Queen Alexandra Stakes (2m5.5f) after winning the Ascot Stakes (2m4f) on Tuesday. Twenty furlongs (4000m) then and now 21.5 furlongs tonight (4150m).
His trainer Willie Mullins won both races with Simenon (Marju) in 2012 and Mick Channon did likewise with Baddam (Mujahid) in 2006. Qewy (Street Cry) takes on Thomas Hobson and it looks a daunting task given he hasn’t raced since winning the Sandown Cup (Listed, 3200m) last November but the 2015 winner Oriental Fox (Lomitas) hadn’t raced for 12 months. He runs again tonight.
The night’s feature is, of course, the Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Gr 1, 6f) and there’s two horses with irresistible statistics and they’re well enough priced to back both. Tasleet (Showcasing) showed at York he’s come back a better horse and he has won four of his past five at 1200 metres. The Tin Man (Equiano) simply needs good ground, having won six of his past seven starts under firm footing and each at 1200 metres.
There is some rain forecast so naturally monitor that with The Tin Man. It won’t bother Tasleet.
The precedents, I find, tend up hold up in these Royal Ascot features (they have been going a long time) and it’s hard to look beyond Sir Michael Stoute’s Dartmouth (Dubawi) in the Hardwicke Stakes (Gr 2, 1m4f). He did win the race last year to give Stoute three straight and seven of the past 11 editions of the Hardwicke.
The Chester staying races are also often a good pointer to this race and, on that basis, the one at value might well be Western Hymn (High Chaparral) who won the Ormonde Stakes (Gr 3, 1m5.5f) on 12 May.
An intriguing Chesham Stakes (Listed, 7f) open the card. The Aidan O’Brien trained filly September (Deep Impact) will be short but is entitled to be. She won, on debut, by 5.5 lengths from Himmah (Intikhab) whose form ties in with Thursday’s Norfolk Stakes (Gr 2, 5f) winner Sioux Nation (Scat Daddy).
Nine of the past 11 Chesham winners have been having start two, coming off a debut maiden run (seven of those winners) and while fillies doesn’t often win it was this stable who last did so with Maybe (Galileo) in 2011.
This afternoon’s action, closer to home, also holds a great deal of interest with an extremely competitive program at Flemington. As I’ve noted before, never bet at Flemington without having a look at the track map which is posted here: http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html.
Assuming a level playing field (or middle to outside favoured) the ever consistent and gritty Ashlor (Hard Spun) looks hard to beat at a realistic price in race two with Wilde Gem (Equiano) something of a wildcard at big odds.
Again, assuming the same regarding the track, I’m happy to stay with Tshahitsi (Clangalang) despite the weight and the draw suggesting to many he can’t win. I feel those factors will make an attractive price (possibly better than $4) for a horse whose last win suggested he’ll win better races. Save your stake on Cannyescent (Canny Lad).