Steve says, at the risk of egg on face, he’s inclined to take on the much hyped three-year-olds in today’s $750,000 Lightning Stakes (Gr 1, 1000m) at Flemington
Either may prove me wrong and go on to be outstanding performers but we have to separate the facts from the hype. Recent history says the Newmarket (Gr 1, 1200m) might be more their stage than the Lightning Stakes.
The hype is largely borne of last spring’s Coolmore Stud Stakes (registered as Ascot Vale Stakes) (Gr 1, 1200m) down the straight course which Flying Artie won with Star Turn finishing third.
So, let’s look at the three-year-olds who finished top three in the Coolmore – since 2006 when it was switched to Derby day – and returned to contest the Lightning Stakes the following year. Six have tried, including the past two Coolmore Stud Stakes winners, and none has won the February race against all comers.
The list is: Bel Mer (Bel Esprit) 2nd and 8th; Shellscrape (Dane Shadow) 3rd and 3rd; Foxwedge (Fastnet Rock) 2nd and 4th; Shamexpress (O’Reilly) 3rd and 6th; Brazen Beau (I Am Invincible) 1st and 2nd, beaten 2.75 lengths; Japonisme (Choisir) 1st and 3rd.
Brazen Beau (I Am Invincible) went into the Lightning with similar expectations to Flying Artie although he did not start favourite. None of this, of course, means that Flying Artie, Star Turn (or even the filly Missrock by Fastnet Rock) cannot win today but it does suggest we cannot simply assume they are home and hosed.
Last spring’s three-year-old sprinter/miler group looks solid enough but, as ever, it’s nice to see them do it in the autumn before you take out a second mortgage to back them. The Caulfield Guineas (Gr 1, 1600m) winner Divine Prophet (Choisir) was OK, but nothing more, when he resumed against the older horses in last Saturday’s CF Orr Stakes (Gr 1, 1400m).
Consider that there was just two and a quarter lengths between the first five in last spring’s Coolmore Stud Stakes; that Flying Artie did beat a moderate line-up in the Blue Sapphire (Gr 3, 1200m) and that Extreme Choice (Not A Single Doubt) might have been right place and right time when he won the Moir Stakes (Gr 1, 1000m) out finishing an out of sorts Chautauqua (Encosta De Lago).
Consider that no three-year-old has won the Lightning since 2005. OK, that’s probably slanted by Black Caviar’s (Bel Esprit) three wins in that time and three-year-olds did win the race six times in eight years before that. However, the most recent history of any race is usually the most reliable.
The spring Coolmore form has been a stronger pointer to the Newmarket Handicap (Gr 1 – 1200m) at the same course and distance and, of course, under handicap conditions.
The past four three-year-old winners of the Newmarket had contested the Coolmore and all, bar Weekend Hussler (Hussonet), were way down in the weights. They were – Brazen Beau with 52 kg (won Coolmore); Shamexpress, 50.5 kg (third); Wanted (Fastnet Rock, 7th), 51.5 kg and Weekend Hussler, 56 kg (won). Three-year-olds have won six of the past 12 Newmarkets.
Flying Artie goes into the race as the world’s highest rated three-year-old sprinter but faces stiff opposition from the older brigade, that group headed chiefly in my view, by Terravista (Captain Rio), Spieth (Thorn Park) and Supido (Sebring).
It promises to be a brilliant race and again underlines the strength of the Australian-bred sprinter. Perhaps it’s worthy of a name change, maybe the Kosciusko or the Bogong (that’s the highest mountain in Victoria).
Flying Artie has added his name to an illustrious list of Australian bred horses who have, since the IFHA rankings were introduced in 2008, been top rated in the turf sprint categories for three-year-old males or females and for those four years and older: Black Caviar, Chautauqua, Sacred Kingdom (Encosta De Lago), Lankan Rupee (Redoute’s Choice), Able Friend (Shamardal), Apache Cat (Lion Cavern), Scenic Blast (Scenic), Rocket Man (Viscount), Starspangledbanner (Choisir), Sepoy (Elusive Quality), Atlantic Jewel (Fastnet Rock), Mosheen (Fastnet Rock), Hay List (Statue Of Liberty) and Pierro (Lonhro).
The Lightning Stakes has a superb honour roll and has often been the precursor to international success as was the case with Chautauqua and Black Caviar while it’s also been won by Scenic Blast, Miss Andretti, Takeover Target (Celtic Swing) and Choisir (Danehill Dancer) who were later Royal Ascot winners.
FLEMINGTON TODAY:
BEST QUINELLA: Race five (The TAB Vanity) numbers 1 Legless Veuve (Pins) and 2 Nurse Kitchen (Savabeel). Their form is simply superior. I’ll grant you there is a caution. Only nine winners of The Vanity, in the past 30 years, have carried more than the minimum but rarely have two fillies looked so simply better than their rivals in this race. Insurance trifecta – add 4 and 8. So take the quinella 1,2 and the trifecta 1, 2, 4, 8.
BEST ROUGHIES: Both in race six (C.S. Hayes Stakes). Fancy there’s two who could figure at odds here. Number 3 Throssell (Captain Sonador) whose two previous fresh runs have been very good, advantaged if they’re swooping. Number 12 Malaise (Helmet) – like him with the blinkers on and going forward in a race where there may not be great pressure, obviously advantaged if on-pacers dominating.
BEST EACH WAY: Race eight (Black Caviar Lightning Stakes). Terravista (Captain Rio) looks over the odds and given that he’s never missed a place first-up it would seem reasonably logical that we could back him each way. Beaten a nose at his past two first-up runs, both at this course and distance including this race last year.