Steve takes an extended look at the four International races at Sha Tin tomorrow.
Talismanic (Medaglia d’Oro) and Highland Reel (Galileo) are clearly the top two internationally rated runners in the Vase (Gr 1, 2400m) and while I certainly don’t think the international handicappers are infallible, I think they’ve got these two right. I prefer Talismanic, for the maestro Andre Fabre, given that he did beat Highland Reel on his merits in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (Gr 1, 12f). He is also likely to be the better price and, if so, the market is wrong.
Talismanic has won four of his five starts on good rated tracks with his only defeat coming in the 2016 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Gr 1, 2400m) after which he was immediately spelled. True, he enjoyed the run of the race at Del Mar but there’s every likelihood the same will transpire here from gate one. He and Highland Reel are likely to roll forward to trail likely pacemaker Danehill Kodiac (Kodiac). If you were splitting them on the basis of their work this week at Sha Tin you’d lean the other way – to Highland Reel but there’s been nothing wrong with Talismanic’s preparation.
Most of their rivals are well exposed. The exception is Japanese three-year-old Kiseki (Rulership) and his form obviously stands up via Japan Cup (Gr 1, 2400m) runner-up Rey De Oro (King Kamehameha). Kiseki is likely to settle well back and inside from gate three so a victory could well depend on either some good fortune or a peach of a ride from Mirco Demuro. Compatriot Tosen Basil (Harbinger) did beat home the Japan Cup winner Cheval Grand (Heart’s Cry), at his latest run, so a top four finish from the five-year-old – especially with Joao Moreira aboard – would hardly shock.
Melbourne Cup (Gr 1, 3200m) runners Max Dynamite (Great Journey) and Tiberian (Tiberius Caesar) have impressed on the track through the week. Max Dynamite has been very sharp and I have an inkling he’ll run well although he’s yet to win right-handed or on good ground. Gold Mount (Excellent Art), who raced as Primitivo in the UK, looks the best of the locally trained horses while the Sir Michael Stoute trained Smart Call (Ideal World) has thrived during the week.
Ex-pat Aussie John Size looks to have the Sprint (Gr 1, 1200m) at his mercy with four runners. His trio Mr Stunning (Exceed And Excel), Amazing Kids (Falkirk) and D B Pin (Darci Brahma) finished in that order in the lead-up Jockey Club Sprint (Gr 2, 1200m) and they may well repeat the dose here. Mr Stunning did cover some ground, albeit with cover, from gate ten in that race and his winning margin was decisive without being bottomed out. Now he draws four and only bad luck, in theory, will beat him. The stablemates certainly ran well enough, behind him, to threaten if the luck falls their way.
Size’s fourth runner Thewizardofoz (Redoute’s Choice) has to improve but this enigmatic galloper is the one likely to have taken most improvement from the aforementioned race and he does have the services of Joao Moreira.
Hugh Bowman’s mount Lucky Bubbles (Sebring), of course, had no luck at all in that key lead-up race and is certainly capable of winning. I can picture the 2014 winner Aerovelocity (Pins) suffering the same fate in the Jockey Club Sprint before winning this Grand Final.
Zac Purton rides the Japanese sprinter Once In A Moon (Admire Moon) and she’s the likely leader from gate two. With the advantage of having Purton aboard, she could well surprise. And if you’re penchant is to try something at crazy odds then the American sprinter Stormy Liberal (Stormy Atlantic) is the one. He has won five of his past six starts, is not Lasix dependant and the only two previous Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Gr 1, 5f) winners to contest this race did run well.
The Hong Kong Mile (Gr 1, 1600m) is invariably dominated by the locals. They’ve won nine of the past ten editions with the only exception being Maurice (Screen Hero) for Japan in 2015 and he was as good a ‘miller’ as we’ve seen in recent years. There are no visitors of his calibre this year. The Danny Shum trained and Australian-bred Seasons Bloom (Captain Sonador) is very much the obvious choice here in my opinion.
He sat deep, from a wide draw, and was simply too good in the principal lead-up race. Some have questioned his ability to back-up but he’s three weeks between runs, has been kept fresh and his form this season has been outstanding. He did have the misfortune, last season when backing up, to regularly bump into another Australian-bred in Rapper Dragon (Street Boss) who was simply too good. Plus, he has that man Moreira aboard.
Helene Paragon (Polan), Beauty Generation (Road To Rock), Beauty Only (Holy Roman Emperor) and Sichuan Dar (Not A Single Doubt) ran satisfactorily in the 19 November precursor and each can be competitive here. Several of the visitors may well also be competitive but I’m risking them in terms of winning chances.
Mind you, the Mile is possibly the most competitive of the four races and it won’t shock if it produces a blanket finish. The Aidan O’Brien pair Lancaster Bomber and Roly Poly (both by War Front) and the Francis-Henri Graffard trained Karar (Invincible Spirit) each performed creditably in the Breeders Cup Mile (Gr 1, 8f) and could certainly be competitive – although the draw was unkind to O’Brien’s duo.
The speed map looks the key to the Hong Kong Cup (Gr 1, 2000m). There doesn’t look to be great early pressure here with no tearaway speed on paper. I’d envisage Robin Of Navan (American Poet) and Time Warp (Archipenko) settling one-two with Neorealism (Neo Universe) box-seating in third spot.
Such a scenario would have Joao Moreira well placed to add to his four HKIR wins (one in each race thus far, assuming he hasn’t added to the tally already this day). He rides Neorealism whom he partnered to win the Audemars Piguet Queen Elizabeth II Cup (Gr 1, 2000m) in April. Neorealism failed in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) (Gr 1, 2000m) at his latest run but the ground was horrendous that day – especially relative to what horses are used to in Japan.
Time Warp might be some value. I thought he ran very well in the Jockey Club Cup (Gr 2, 2000m) when left with the task of carting the field up to the leader. That race winner Werther (Tavistock) will obviously be hard to beat while the best longshot might be Robin Of Navan given the speed map and his terrific overall record on top of the ground.
This race, however, like the Mile may be a little more open than many might think and I’d be reluctant to put the pen through any one of the nine visiting runners.