The Barrier Draw And I Am Invincible Look To Be Key Factors
It’s already been a big week for I Am Invincible. His 25 lots on days one and two, of the MM yearling sales, cleared at 100 per cent for an aggregate of $7,200,000. And his stock may be even more popular at subsequent 2017 auctions should results go his way on the track this afternoon.
And there’s a reasonable likelihood they will. His key runners are Most Important in the Woodford Reserve Magic Millions Cup (RL, 1400m); Eckstein in the Magic Millions 3YO Guineas (RL, 1400m); Invincible Star and Houtzen in the Jeep Magic Millions 2YO Classic (RL, 1200m) and Viddora in the Myer Magic Millions Sprint (1200m).
The Tony Gollan-trained Most Important chases a fourth straight win and is drawn for the perfect, prominent trail on the speed. He looks every chance of upsetting the favourite Lucky Hussler (Husson) and, indeed, some chance of displacing last year’s winner as favourite.
Lucky Hussler won the race last year with just 0.5 kilograms less than the weight he has to contend with this year. On that occasion, he enjoyed a good run from gate but is drawn wide in twelve this time (as the field stood before final scratchings).
And that brings in the other key.
THE BARRIERS
While the overall barrier statistics at the Gold Coast are not that dramatically skewed from the norm at other tracks, the most important factor is what happens on this day when the competition is at its most intense.
Inside draws have a major edge on the big day, assuming the track is good (on soft tracks, as was the case in 2015, the draw becomes much less relevant). Last year only two of the nine winners drew double figure gates. They were Buffering (Mossman), who was a $1.35 chance, and Mahuta (Flying Spur) who both led throughout.
Similarly, Sweet Idea (Snitzel) crossed to lead throughout to win the 3YO Guineas from gate 13 in 2014 – the only winner drawn wider than seven that year.
Eight of the past twelve 2YO Classic winners have drawn either two or three and only one won from a double figure draw. Overall gates one to three provide the greatest percentage of Gold Coast 1200 metre winners (followed by four to six).
Surprisingly, the story is very different in the 3YO Guineas with nine of the past ten winners drawing ten or worse. However, six of those nine winners had jockeys who rolled the dice to go forward and settle first or second. That certainly seems to be the best option if drawn out at the 1400 metre start and it’s one I suspect will be employed on Global Glamour (Star Witness) from the outside gate in the 3YO Guineas.
But it’s not an option for Lucky Hussler in the Magic Millions Cup as he simply doesn’t have the early speed. Of course, his class might still prevail but I would lean to Most Important who will be parked behind the leaders Strawberry Boy (Redoute’s Choice) and Monsieur Gustave (Al Maher), each of whom has some chance, along with Hopfgarten (Mossman).
The unbeaten Winning Rupert (Written Tycoon) is entitled to be the odds-on favourite in the 3YO Guineas but the insurance inclusions are Global Glamour, Eckstein and Alter Call (Fastnet Rock) if she sneaks a run.
Global Glamour’s stablemate Arbeitsam (Snitzel) looks the only other leader. I think they will have to gamble and go forward on Global Glamour who can sustain a strong rolling speed (she did break 60 seconds for the first 1000 metres in the Flight Stakes and kept running). She’s tough.
Visiting juveniles have won eight of the past twelve Magic Millions 2YO Classics (and, of course, been drawn in). There has been a lack of depth in the interstate challenge in the four years, in that period, when the Queenslanders claimed the race and I don’t think that’s the case this year.
Thus the profile horse is Madeenaty (Exceed And Excel) and she appeals as the bet at around $8 with the wide barriers the concern with Invincible Star and Houtzen (either of whom could well be exceptional).
Madeenaty was, of course, first home on the slower flat side when beaten behind Invincible Star at Flemington in Cup week. She was then solid in winning at Wyong. That performance seems to have been devalued by some as runner-up Single Bullet (Not A Single Doubt) was then beaten at Warwick Farm but that was on heavy ground so I doubt it’s relevant.
Viddora is yet to win at 1200 metres but had legitimate excuses for her defeats at the trip earlier in her career. She can certainly run well in the Magic Millions Sprint with Dothraki (Mossman) who is unbeaten at the course and distance and Target In Sight (Nadeem) who resumes after bleeding, looking the other key chances.
BEST BET (VALUE): Gold Coast Race 8 number 8 Madeenaty for reasons outlined.
BEST BET (REGARDLESS OF PRICE): Flemington Race 1 number 1 Widgee Turf (Turffontein). Excellent winner this track and trip two starts back. Dropped back to 1200 metres at Moonee Valley when the VOBIS money was irresistible. Small field here but good speed and that will suit. Should be too good.
BEST LONGSHOT: Flemington Race 9 number 3 I’m Ablaze (Bon Hoffa). Ran well behind Decision Time (Foreplay) down the straight course before not disgraced in the Xmas Stakes (Listed, 1200m). Back to a BM 78 and better ridden off the speed in this distance range.
BEST EACH WAY: Flemington Race 7 number 8 Divine Mr Artie (Artie Schiller). Ready for 1400 metres now. Disadvantaged when the weights were raised in the Standish Handicap (Gr 3, 1200m) and better placed this time, e.g. has 3 kilogram advantage on Lord Aspen (Good Journey) who looks the benchmark runner.
CRAZY BET: Flemington quaddie. First leg Oncidium Ruler one out into 2,4,6,8/ Field/ Field – 6.9 per cent for $50.