The global decline of the thoroughbred foal crop
The number of thoroughbred foals bred globally has dropped nearly 30 per cent in the past 15 years. By The Numbers digs into the downward trend of foal crops across the world.
The Jockey Club in the United States recently projected that the 2024 North American foal crop would drop to its lowest level since 1964, as the decline in the number of thoroughbreds in the world’s biggest racing jurisdiction continues.
The projection that 18,000 thoroughbreds would be foaled in North America next year represents a 500-foal drop from 2023, and a reduction of over 33,000 from its peak in 1986, when it was 51,296. The stark reality of these statistics has prompted ongoing discussion among American thoroughbred industry powerbrokers about what it actually means.
It is not just a conversation which is happening Stateside. Australia’s thoroughbred foal crop peaked in 1989, when it reached 23,697, but has almost halved in the 33 years since, to 12,961 in 2022. Similar to North America, the numbers have fallen away over the past 15 years, in Australia’s case by 30.8 per cent, from 18,741 in 2006-07.
What is apparent from the Australian numbers is that the rate of decline has slowed over the last five breeding seasons. In 2017-18, the foal crop was 13,168, and since that point the total drop has been only 1.5 per cent, compared to 15.4 per cent over the same period in North America.
Nevertheless, should the Australian foal crop in 2023 fall marginally, it would be the lowest in the country since 1977.
New Zealand foal crops are following the same path. The peak number was 5,264 in 1994-95, but that had dropped 21.6 per cent, to 4,126 in 2007-08. There was a slight rebound in the late 2000s, before an ongoing decline. In 2019, it was 3,489, 33.7 per cent off the peak.
The most recent comprehensive global data set is from 2019, which reported that across the world there were 88,530 thoroughbreds foaled that year. That number has dropped 27.6 per cent from its peak this century of 122,192 in 2007, and 23 per cent from where it was in 2002.
Global thoroughbred foal crop by year from 2002 to 2019
| Year | Foal crop |
| 2002 | 114,931 |
| 2003 | 112,641 |
| 2004 | 115,940 |
| 2005 | 119,045 |
| 2006 | 119,931 |
| 2007 | 122,192 |
| 2008 | 121,517 |
| 2009 | 113,592 |
| 2010 | 105,881 |
| 2011 | 99,276 |
| 2012 | 96,825 |
| 2013 | 92,873 |
| 2014 | 90,785 |
| 2015 | 90,769 |
| 2016 | 91,898 |
| 2017 | 92,385 |
| 2018 | 89,355 |
| 2019 | 88,530 |
Only ten of the 62 countries featured in that 2019 report had an increase in their foal crops from 2002, with all the major racing jurisdictions, except for France and Argentina, reporting substantial drops.
In Great Britain, the number of thoroughbred foals fell 7.9 per cent from 2002, while in Ireland, the same period saw a nine per cent drop. Japan fell 15.2 per cent in that 17-year period while South Africa’s foal crop declined by 24.8 per cent and Germany’s by 46 per cent.
France’s breeding industry has bucked the trend compared to its European neighbours, with its 2019 number 25.6 per cent higher than it was in 2002. In South America, the numbers in Argentina (up 12.6 per cent) and Chile (up 2.1 per cent) have been sustained, but Brazil’s crop has declined by 48.5 per cent.
The other growth area is in the Middle East, where the number of thoroughbreds bred in places like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar increased significantly, albeit off a small base.
There were 26,401 fewer thoroughbreds foaled in 2019 than there were in 2002, with the US responsible for 49.5 per cent of that number.
Foal crop in selected countries from 2002 to 2019
| Year | United States | Australia | New Zealand | Japan | Great Britain | Ireland | France |
| 2002 | 32,984 | 18,060 | 5,060 | 8,690 | 5,156 | 10,214 | 4,461 |
| 2003 | 33,972 | 17,201 | 4,750 | 8,488 | 5,429 | 10,574 | 4,402 |
| 2004 | 34,798 | 16,940 | 4,509 | 8,213 | 6,318 | 10,992 | 4,931 |
| 2005 | 35,046 | 17,178 | 4,600 | 7,930 | 6,003 | 11,748 | 5,252 |
| 2006 | 34,887 | 18,413 | 4,561 | 7,632 | 5,794 | 12,004 | 5,373 |
| 2007 | 34,301 | 18,255 | 4,264 | 7,495 | 6,052 | 12,633 | 5,393 |
| 2008 | 32,174 | 18,388 | 4,654 | 7,343 | 6,043 | 12,419 | 5,447 |
| 2009 | 29,500 | 16,112 | 4,469 | 7,453 | 5,652 | 10,167 | 5,524 |
| 2010 | 25,800 | 17,191 | 4,334 | 7,105 | 4,665 | 7,588 | 5,470 |
| 2011 | 23,200 | 15,893 | 4,161 | 7,064 | 4,635 | 7,550 | 4,984 |
| 2012 | 21,725 | 15,540 | 3,899 | 6,819 | 4,366 | 7,546 | 5,046 |
| 2013 | 21,377 | 13,365 | 3,842 | 6,665 | 4,420 | 7,757 | 5,057 |
| 2014 | 20,450 | 13,306 | 3,561 | 6,733 | 4,328 | 7,999 | 4,803 |
| 2015 | 20,600 | 12,638 | 3,774 | 6,844 | 4,569 | 8,780 | 4,874 |
| 2016 | 20,850 | 12,653 | 3,464 | 6,905 | 4,663 | 9,381 | 5,305 |
| 2017 | 20,900 | 13,823 | 3,463 | 7,079 | 4,674 | 9,689 | 5,460 |
| 2018 | 19,925 | 13,016 | 3,646 | 7,242 | 4,826 | 9,569 | 5,575 |
| 2019 | 19,106 | 12,944 | 3,489 | 7,368 | 4,748 | 9,295 | 5,646 |
Foal crop numbers only tell part of the story. The numbers of active mares and stallions has fallen at an even greater rate this century.
Globally, from 2002 to 2019, the number of active broodmares slumped 29.4 per cent, or 55,845 to 134,100. In the US alone, the total number of active mares dropped 50.1 per cent in that time, while the corresponding fall in Australia was 24.2 per cent.
In 1989-90, the number of active broodmares breeding in Australia peaked at 43,549. By 2021, this had fallen to 20,279, a decline of 53.4 per cent.
The mare numbers in Great Britain (5.6 per cent) and Ireland (10.5 per cent) dropped from 2002 to 2019, but the greatest reduction, in terms of overall numbers, apart from the US and Australia, came in New Zealand, which saw its active mare population plunge from 9,288 to 4,921 in that period, a negative change of 47 per cent.
The reason the active mare population has declined at a greater rate than foal crop numbers is that innovations in fertility and equine medical science have seen the rate of fertility increase, meaning fewer mares are needed for every foal produced. In Australia, that fertility mark currently sits at around 64 per cent, up from 38 per cent in 1979 and 59 per cent at the turn of the century.
While the number of broodmares and foals has dropped, the number of active stallions globally this century has been in an even sharper decline. In 2002, the total of stallions from each country was 11,245, but in 2019 that had fallen to 5,593, a 50.3 per cent fall.
This statistic does include some double counting of shuttle sires, but it points to a much more selective approach from those opting which stallions are going to stud. This impact has been especially significant in the US, which saw a 67.2 per cent drop in stallion numbers from 2002 to 2019. The slump has continued in the years since, with 1,095 stallions active in 2023 compared to 1,344 in 2019 and 4,096 back in 2002.
The Australian stallion numbers trend the same way, but not to the same extent. From 1,174 active stallions in 2002, the numbers had fallen to 609 in 2019, a drop of 48.1 per cent. That figure stood at 522 in 2022. New Zealand’s thoroughbred stallion population dropped 48 per cent from 2002 to 2,019.
The only countries which saw an increase in the number of thoroughbred stallions from 2002 to 2019 were Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Morocco, Bahrain and Qatar.
The fallout from the recent Jockey Club numbers, projecting the smallest North American crop in nearly 60 years has been interesting to track. There are plenty of statistics that show thoroughbred breeding has never been a more efficient process, with a much more commercial approach ensuring a better product with more longevity.
There is an argument that in Australia, given the volume of prize–money and wagering on racing is at historic highs, that the industry has never been better at eking the commercial value out of the thoroughbreds who are the stars of the show.
The reduction of the number of thoroughbreds produced in the major jurisdictions has been market driven, with a greater focus on return on investment as the cost of breeding and raising horses has increased. That has resulted in a significant decline in ‘breed-to-race’ operations, which are less commercially orientated.
There is also lower demand for thoroughbreds for purposes other than racing or beyond their racing career, as developed countries like Australia and the US have become more urbanised, changing the relationship between humans and horses.
That relationship is at the heart of the reason why thoroughbred racing has endured over the years. The challenge is now, in a more commercially driven reality where there are fewer horses, how that connection is maintained.
Percentage changes in key breeding numbers in United States and Australia since 2013
| Foals | Active mares | Active stallions | ||||
| Year | US | Australia | US | Australia | US | Australia |
| 2013 | -1.6% | -16.3% | -2.0% | -4.1% | -5.1% | -2.3% |
| 2014 | -4.5% | -0.4% | 1.8% | -5.2% | -7.0% | -8.9% |
| 2015 | 0.7% | -5.3% | 0.6% | -5.6% | -15.0% | -4.9% |
| 2016 | 1.2% | 0.1% | -6.5% | 0.0% | -14.5% | -4.3% |
| 2017 | 0.2% | 8.5% | -4.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | -11.3% |
| 2018 | -4.9% | -6.2% | -4.0% | 4.5% | -6.2% | 7.1% |
| 2019 | -4.3% | -0.6% | -4.0% | -0.8% | -10.0% | 0.3% |
| 2020 | -3.5% | -0.7% | -4.0% | -1.7% | 2.5% | -21.3% |
| 2021 | -3.4% | -0.3% | -2.7% | -0.7% | -13.3% | 5.1% |
| 2022 | -3.2% | 1.1% | -2.3% | 2.7% | -11.1% | -1.3% |