TWO GUINEAS races on the one day. You know it’s not such a bad thing. Just needs a little tweak which I’m keeping up my sleeve for the moment
Group One action 20 minutes apart and two chances to back possibly obvious winners at better odds than they should be because of the status of the races. I refer to Hey Doc (Duporth) and Man From Uncle (Uncle Mo).
Neither is ‘home and hosed’ – given the track conditions in Sydney and the constant ’the who knows how it will play’ Flemington dilemma – but both appeal with form and history on their side.
Tony McEvoy’s Hey Doc was a commanding second-up winner, under the maximum penalties, of the usual lead-in race – the C S Hayes Stakes (Gr 3, 1400m). Third-up in the spring, he was a similarly commanding winner of the Stutt Stakes (Gr 2, 1600m).
Yes, of course, he was then beaten behind rivals Divine Prophet (Choisir) and Seaburge (Sebring) in the Caulfield Guineas (Gr 1, 1600m) but had a much tougher run than the other two and was beaten just 0.7 lengths. He’s had two runs this campaign while they’ve had just the one and neither was especially eye-catching. I have no doubt about Hey Doc, whatsoever, at 1600 metres.
The one possible query is gate one (his draw assuming the third emergency doesn’t get a run). He’s been so well ridden to date by Luke Currie, that the horse has never really experienced the bustle of being jammed up inside horses and leading is not an option in my view.
His hope, which looks plausible, is that Legless Veuve (Pins) and Oak Door (Commands) really hustle early and string the field out; he can ease into the running line and that the track plays fairly, or to the advantage of those inside and on pace, which looks probable.
The track map, posted by TurfTrax on Friday, indicated better ground close to the fence for most of the straight. Those close to the pace might just have a kick in the closing stages.
The map was quite accurate at the last Flemington meeting (18 February) and there’s a link to both maps bottom of the story for those interested.
I’m no expert on reading these maps, and the proof of the pudding is always in the eating, but the Thursday map suggests to me that any rider who is brave enough to come nearer to the inside to make ground might be rewarded. Not to mention shortest way home!
It was not dissimilar, on 18 February, with Guineas contenders Seaburge, Land Of Plenty (Stratum) and Throssell (Captain Sonador) disadvantaged out wide. It doesn’t look as pronounced this time.
If those three aforementioned horses run exceptionally well and/or likewise Hardham (Redoute’s Choice) in the Randwick Guineas, you’d better scamper to the laptop and consider including Time Awaits (Nicconi) and Something Violet (Commands) in your bets on the 4.38 pm at Morphettville as they were also in the wrong part of the track last time at Flemington. Same goes for Smart Dart (Bel Esprit) and Entre Nous (King Of Prussia) at Wangaratta on Sunday.
Hey Doc seeks to follow the path of the past two Australian Guineas winners Wandjina (Snitzel) and Palentino (Teofilo) who were both first home in the Hayes. If there’s a rival from the precedents corner then it is the filly Harlow Gold (Tavistock) who comes off a good, closing effort in The Vanity (Gr 3, 1400m) after having run first or second in the previous spring’s VRC Oaks (Gr 1, 2500m) which mirrors Mosheen (Fastnet Rock) and Shamrocker (O’Reilly) – the past two female Guineas winners.
Five of the past six Randwick Guineas have run first or second in the Hobartville Stakes (Gr 2, 1400m) which speaks well to the prospects of Man From Uncle and Echo Effort (Reset) who was second in the Rosehill race. However, the former keeps winning and the latter keep running a place.
If drawing out is obviously not a major disadvantage then I fancy the $6 available against Man From Uncle is generous and the Friday afternoon reconnaissance suggested off the fence would be advantageous.
Back to my home turf Flemington and I’m keen on race eight, the Roy Higgins Quality (Listed, 2600m). Think the play is to have one unit the win and two the place on both Big Memory (Duke Of Marmalade) and Annus Mirabilis (Montjeu). Take the box trifecta 2,3,5,8,9. If the track is obviously playing to swoopers then just switch to backing Annus Mirabilis only.
Zebrinz (Sebring) also appeals each way in race six, the TAB Rewards Stakes (Gr 3, 1400m) while the best long-shots appear in the same race. That’s race four, the Frances Tressady Stakes (Gr 3, 1400m) with Choose (Starcraft) capable of sharp improvement and Quilate (Bramshaw) over the odds on her run to Sebring Dream (Sebring) at Sandown.