Unraced at two, stars at three
Today’s By The Numbers takes a look into what history tells us about the prospects of unraced two-year-olds becoming Group 1 winners at three.
The approach of spring brings expectation in many walks of life, none more so than in the thoroughbred industry.
This period of optimism in the calendar corresponds with a surge in the number of three-year-olds kicking off their careers ahead of the feature racing season. With that in mind, it’s time to put those horses who have been unraced in their juvenile season in the spotlight.
Firstly, to get some context, let’s look at the overall percentage of horses in Australia who debut at two as compared to those who debut at three.
A nine-year data sample from Racing Australia reveals there were an average of 2,868 two-year-old debutants a season and 4,554 horses who debuted at three. Compiling that data into specific crops, we see that of all the horses that start their careers by the end of their three-year-old season, around 38.5 per cent of them debuted as two-year-olds, while 61.5 per cent debuted as three-year-olds.
It may be somewhat surprising that the ratio is so slanted towards horses debuting as three-year-olds, given Australian racing’s reputation for precocity, but as previously covered in this column, when compared to other major jurisdictions, Australia’s two-year-old obsession is a bit of a myth.
The next step in the process was to look back at the list of Australian Group 1-winning three-year-olds in the past five years and sort them by when they debuted.
That data reveals that 25 of the 96 subsequent Group 1-winning three-year-olds in the last five Australian racing seasons, that is 26 per cent, entered their classic season without a start. That leaves 74 per cent of those three-year-old Group 1 winners having first started as two-year-olds, a significant flip on the overall ratio above.
Debut profile of Australian 3-year-old Group 1 winners since 2018-19
| Season | 3YO G1 winners | Debuted as 2YO | Debuted as 3YO |
| 2022-23 | 24 | 19 | 5 |
| 2021-22 | 18 | 11 | 7 |
| 2020-21 | 17 | 13 | 4 |
| 2019-20 | 20 | 16 | 4 |
| 2018-19 | 17 | 12 | 5 |
| Total | 96 | 71 | 25 |
Looking at the recently completed 2022-23 season, we see that five of the 24 individual Group 1-winning three-year-olds (20.8 per cent) didn’t start until after they turned three on August 1, 2022. All five of those horses won Group 1s in the second half of the season.
The latest of the debutants was Kris Lees’ Queensland Oaks (Gr 1, 2200m) winner Amokura (Kermadec), whose first start wasn’t until February 19 in a Taree maiden. That is the latest debut of any Group 1-winning three-year-old since the start of the 2018-19 season.
The other names on that list were Sunshine In Paris (Invader), Affaire A Suivre (Astern), Dunkel (Dundeel) and Kovalica (Ocean Park).
Of the 19 Group 1-winning three-year-olds last season who did race as two-year-olds, the average number of starts they had in their juvenile year was 2.42. Eleven of those horses had two or fewer starts as juveniles.
She’s Extreme (Extreme Choice), the winner of the VRC Oaks (Gr 1, 2500m), had the most starts of that cohort in her two-year-old season, with six.
In that previously mentioned sample of 96 three-year-old Group 1 winners since 2018-19, Sunlight (Zoustar) had the most active race record in her two-year-old campaign. She raced eight times before turning three, but it clearly didn’t negatively impact what she did the following season as she won three Group 1 races, including two against older opposition.
Another notably busy two-year-old to go on to multiple Group 1 success as a three-year-old was Anamoe (Street Boss), who started seven times in his juvenile season, and then returned to win both the Caulfield Guineas (Gr 1, 1600m) and the Rosehill Guineas (Gr 1, 2000m) in his classic year. Hinged (Worthy Cause) and Converge (Frankel), who hail from the same crop as Anamoe, also had seven two-year-old starts ahead of their Group 1-winning three-year-old seasons.
That 2021-22 crop of three-year-olds was also notable for the high ratio of classic-season Group 1 winners who didn’t race at all as two-year-olds. There were seven who fit that category of 18 overall, or 38.9 per cent.
Three of those came in the spring with horses in their first campaigns. Never Been Kissed (Tivaci) debuted on August 19 and won a Flight Stakes (Gr 1, 1600m) on October 2, while Profondo’s (Deep Impact) progress was even quicker, claiming a Spring Champion Stakes (Gr 1, 2000m) at start three just 40 days after his racetrack debut. Willowy (Kermadec) went from a September 15 2021 debut to VRC Oaks victory on November 4.
That trio are very much in the minority. Of the 42 three-year-olds to win spring Group 1 races in the past five seasons, just seven (or 16.7 per cent) have been winners who didn’t debut until their three-year-old season. When the filter is switched to Group 1 action in the autumn/winter, that figure stands at a much higher 17 from 54, or 31.5 per cent.
So, what do the stats tell us about the best time to debut a horse when it comes to three-year-old Group 1 success?
Firstly, the list of 96 contains only 11 horses who had their first start as pre-Christmas two-year-olds. The most common month to debut for these future Group 1 winners was in April of their two-year-old season, with 11 representatives from that month alone. Next highest were March and June with nine apiece.
As mentioned, three-year-old maiden company at this time of year is seen as a terrific nursery for future track stars and the stats do indeed back that up. Eight future three-year-old Group 1 winners since 2018-19 have debuted in the August of their three-year-old seasons, while there are a further five in September.
Debut month of future Group 1-winning 3YOs winners since 2018-19
| Month | G1 winning 3YOs |
| September 2YO | 1 |
| October 2YO | 5 |
| November 2YO | 2 |
| December 2YO | 6 |
| January 2YO | 7 |
| February 2YO | 9 |
| March 2YO | 8 |
| April 2YO | 11 |
| May 2YO | 7 |
| June 2YO | 9 |
| July 2YO | 6 |
| August 3YO | 8 |
| September 3YO | 5 |
| October 3YO | 5 |
| November 3YO | 3 |
| December 3YO | 2 |
| January 3YO | 0 |
| February 3YO | 2 |
Extending the filter out to Australian Group 1 winners of all ages, we see the percentage of those who were unraced as two-year-olds rises. There were 53 individual Australasian-bred Group 1 winners in the just completed 2022-23 Australian season and of them, 18, or 34 per cent, did not race in their juvenile season. That compares with 20.8 per cent in the same season for Group 1-winning three-year-olds.
Of that 18, all but one, Roch ‘N’ Horse (Per Incanto) started their careers as three-year-olds.
Of those 35 who did race as two-year-olds, just six raced pre-Christmas. Again, April of their two-year-old season was the most represented debut month, with seven future Group 1 winners, or 13.2 per cent of all Australasian-bred Group 1 winners last season.
Debut profile of all Australasian-bred Group 1 winners in Australia in 2022-23
| Debut | Number | Percentage |
| 2YO | 35 | 66.0% |
| 3YO | 17 | 32.1% |
| 4YO | 1 | 1.9% |