What a fabulous day’s racing ahead – at Randwick and Caulfield. What a bloody shame it is not properly showcased on any one of the FIVE TV stations showing racing in this country!
I’m no longer interested in all the machinations and contractual obligations; the Sky, TAB and Victorian angst; the history and the pettiness. I want someone to fix it.
EVERYONE in the game, wants someone to fix it!
Surely there is a compromise to be found and right now – given the state of flux in Victoria – it really does fall to Racing New South Wales chief Peter V’Landys to resolve it.
Yes, Peter – I’m a Victorian making a personal plea to you. Please do something or, at least, initiate the mediation.
At the moment it’s embarrassing.
Six Group races in Sydney, eight in Melbourne, the appearance of the world’s highest rated turf performer Winx at Randwick and the prospect of fascinating and action packed scampers in the Blue Diamond Stakes (Gr 1, 1200m) and Oakleigh Plate (Gr 1, 1100m) at Caulfield.
And yet the consumer cannot see these two meetings showcased on the one channel. It’s really beyond belief.
It gets worse. I can’t even watch replay videos on Racing New South Wales or Racing.com of the rival states races.
Imagine sitting down with an overseas visitor, calling up Winx (Street Cry) on the RNSW website and then explaining we’ll have to go to another site if he or she would like to see the Cox Plate win.
Imagine if you had some friends, with no great interest in the sport, around this afternoon and you could say: “Hey, come and watch this for half an hour, forty minutes….this is the Blue Diamond for two-year-olds, the winner gets almost a million dollars and these horses were only bought 12 months ago…in a couple of weeks they run the Golden Slipper and that’s worth two million to the winner and the favourite She Will Reign cost 20 grand…
“And straight after this race, there’s a big race in Sydney. Winx is running and she’s the best in the world. And check out this girl Francesca telling us about the horses. She’s cool and she know what she’s talking about….and then there’s the Oakleigh Plate where they just run like crazy. Last year’s winner Flamberge is running again. He was 30/1 last year, you could have chucked 20 bucks on him and won a lazy 600…..”
You get the picture. Broaden the audience. Create a bit of interest. They’re not going to tune into Sky 1.
CAULFIELD TODAY
The Oakleigh Plate (Gr 1, 1100m) follows last week’s Lightning Stakes (Gr 1, 1000m) and again – as per last week – I suspect you have to take on the three-year-old favourite Extreme Choice (Not A Single Doubt). It’s nothing personal Newgate Henry and Caulfield Mick!
It’s all about the price. At $7 or $8, I could be tempted but not at the $3.90 quoted last night.
He is a very, very good horse. His worth already proven. But he needs to be a mighty one to defy a lot of history, and the likely shape of this race, to win.
While plenty of three-year-olds have won this race, thirteen in the past 30 years, only one in that time managed to win it first-up from a spell. That was Weekend Hussler (Hussonet) who carried two kilograms above the minimum whereas Extreme Choice has four kilograms above this year’s limit.
No horse has won the Oakleigh Plate after winning the previous year’s Blue Diamond which I concede is probably more a matter of curiosity than concrete evidence for the prosecution…but still?
Two three-year-olds have completed the Moir Stakes (Gr 1, 1000m) – Oakleigh Plate double but that duo Spartacus (Snippets) in 1997 and With Me (Covetous) 1991 were race fit going into the Oakleigh Plate.
What does win it? That’s not easy. Eleven of the past 15 winners have been at $10 or better which speaks to the handicap and helter skelter nature of this race.
The class sits with the top six in the handicap in my view but I’ll risk Flamberge (Exceed And Excel) and Fell Swoop (Not A Single Doubt) winning given the history. They ran one-two last year. Dual Choice is the only back to back winner of this race, which was first run in 1884, and you have to go back to 1930 to find a runner-up returning the claim the prize.
I think the three key winning chances are Kaepernick (Fastnet Rock), Sheidel (Holy Roman Emperor) and Thermal Current (Exceed And Excel) while the wildcards to be added in the quaddie are Ocean Embers (Beneteau) and Guard Of Honour (Northern Meteor).
It’s not often you get a blanket finish to the Blue Diamond Stakes. In fact you have to go back to 2010 when Star Witness (Starcraft) won and there was less than a half length between the first three and just 2.1 lengths back to sixth who happened to be the subsequent Golden Slipper winner Crystal Lily (Stratum).
However, I expect a tight finish is on the cards this year. So, in another wide open race, I am happy to let history assist in the process of elimination.
Favourites have won five of the past six Blue Diamonds but they’ve been clear cut. Only four times in the past 12 years has the market been wide, as it is this year, and there were value winners in each of those years (8, 14, 17 and 26 dollars). So I’m happy to chase some value this year.
Only three times in the past 30 years has the winner not run first or second in the final lead-up run and wet tracks were a factor in two of the exceptions. Alas that only eliminates six runners this year.
However, I will narrow the cast further by discarding the speed runners. Bel Esprit (Royal Academy), back in 2002, was the last legitimate all the way winner although Reward For Effort (Exceed And Excel) and Sepoy (Elusive Quality) were certainly on speed winners. Doubt there’s one good enough to lead throughout this year.
The principal contenders therefore are Property (Starcraft), Pariah (Redoute’s Choice), Taking Aim (Choisir), Catchy (Fastnet Rock), Tulip (Pierro) and Roomooz (Fastnet Rock).
Stirring in the value to the recipe, I’m left with Taking Aim and Roomooz. Something for Henry Field and Newgate Farm after all as they part-own Taking Aim and offered Roomooz at Sydney Easter, last year, where she made $480,000. Imagine if I’m wrong and Extreme Choice wins as well!
OK, enough waffle – let’s find a winner in the (theoretically) more straightforward races. Race 4 number 1 Jennifer Lynn (High Chaparral), each way. Race 5 number 3 Turn Me Loose (Iffraaj), one win, three place units. Race 6 number 1 Stratum Star (Stratum), each way.