Who will come out on top in Europe’s race of the season so far?

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This week, Eye On Europe will have a slightly different look than usual as we preview Saturday’s Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, with the feature shaping up to be the classiest race of the 2023 flat racing season so far, writes Daniel Harrold.

It is Britain’s most prestigious open-age flat race. The King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes boasts an extraordinary roll of honour since its inception in 1951.

In fact, the 1975 running, which involved a classic battle to the line between Grundy and Bustino, is frequently described in the UK as the “race of the century”.

Other timeless winners include Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard, Shergar, Dancing Brave, Nashwan, Lammtarra, Montjeu, Galileo, Nathaniel, Highland Reel, and three-time scorer and record-breaker Enable.

Many of its winners subsequently go on to compete in October’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, while plenty have gone on to have a successful career at stud. 

This year’s renewal looks very likely to be no exception in that department, with a host of potential stallion prospects set to take their chance at the five-day stage.

So, in alphabetical (and racecard) order, here is an in-depth look at each of the 15 hopefuls still holding their place in this weekend’s mile-and-a-half feature.

 

1. BOLSHOI BALLET (80/1)

This five-year-old son of Coolmore’s late super sire Galileo, will be out to emulate his father, who won this race in 2001. Having secured a maiden success from three starts as a juvenile, the Aidan O’Brien-trained Bolshoi Ballet returned as a three-year-old with a pair of ready victories in Group 3 events at Leopardstown. He was then subsequently sent off the 11-8 favourite for the Group 1 Epsom Derby in 2021 but could only manage seventh in the 17-runner field, beaten a total of 17 lengths by the eventual winner Adayar. A brother to the 2019 Zipping Classic winner Southern France, Bolshoi Ballet went on to land the Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes on his next outing. However, he is yet to score since that Grade 1 success, and his runner-up placing in the Listed Wolferton Stakes during last month’s Royal Ascot meeting suggests he’ll fall short of what is required here.

 

2. BROOME (66/1)

Another potential contender for Coolmore, who co-own the now seven-year-old entire in partnership with Japanese businessman Masaaki Matsushima. A winner of the 2021 Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, his sole success at the highest level, the son of Australia has made no impact in the previous two renewals of this race, finishing a well-beaten fourth on each occasion. He has been victorious over this course and distance, landing last year’s Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes, but has been plying his trade over a further distance in recent starts, including when winning the Group 2 Dubai Gold Cup over two miles at Meydan in March. It is difficult to see him coming out on top if lining up again.

 

3. DEAUVILLE LEGEND (25/1)

One of only two gelding’s to potentially tackle this year’s race, the James Ferguson-trained four-year-old is a generally progressive sort. Raced by Hong Kong-based owner Bon Ho, the son of Sea The Stars won both the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy Stakes and Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes last year before being sent off the 17-5 favourite for the Group 1 Melbourne Cup, where he ran a very respectable fourth, beaten five lengths by the winner, Gold Trip. Returning for his first-up outing of the season, Deauville Legend produced another fourth-placed effort behind Pyledriver in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes last month, but was only beaten two and three-quarter lengths at the finish. Looks to be one of the outsiders that could outrun their respective odds, with another crack at the Flemington showpiece certainly on the cards. 

 

4. DESERT CROWN (13/2)

One of the likely main protagonists for this weekend’s event, last year’s impressive Group 1 Epsom Derby winner Desert Crown. Clearly very fragile, the Sir Michael Stoute-trained son of Nathaniel has made just the four starts in his career to date, registering a maiden success at Nottingham before a ready win in the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York, a performance that saw him go off the 5-2 favourite for the Epsom feature, a performance in which he produced a Racing Post Rating (RPR) 1lb higher than that of Auguste Rodin in this year’s Derby. Having sustained an injury following that career-defining victory, which left him sidelined for a total of 355 days, Desert Crown was last seen losing his unbeaten run with a half-length defeat at the hands of Hukum in the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown, having looked the winner for a long way before tiring in the closing stages. Another setback since that very respectable effort saw him miss out on the Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot last month, however, a peak-fitness performance from this four-year-old would see him right there at the finish. Sir Michael Stoute is currently the winningest trainer in the history of this race, with six victories.

 

5. HAMISH (100/1)

Australians may be familiar with this stable favourite for the William Haggas team, however, his participation here is very much unlikely in my opinion. Another fragile sort, the seven-year-old gelding is a five-time Group 3 winner from a total of 16 career starts, including last time out in the John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes at York under regular rider Tom Marquand. He is often sparsely campaigned though, so it’ll be a surprise to see him turned out here just a fortnight on from that hard-fought success.

 

6. HUKUM (4/1)

Owen Burrows’ stable star has finished out of the top three in just a trio of his 16 career outings, and became a Group 1 winner at his 14th start when running out a comfortable four and a half length winner of the 2022 Coronation Cup at Epsom. It is hard to argue that race was the most competitive of top-flight contests, with the beaten runner-up, Pyledriver,  the only horse to have won a Group 1 prior to that event, however, Hukum made a winning reappearance when defeating Desert Crown in the aforementioned Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes and his trainer is confident of another bold showing from the six-year-old, with the potential forecasted rain playing in his favour.

 

7. LUXEMBOURG (16/1)

Coolmore’s third potential contender. A Group 1 winner as a juvenile, a three-year-old, and a four-year-old following his Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup triumph at the Curragh in May, the son of Camelot was readily fended off when sent off a 2-1 favourite for last month’s Prince of Wales’s Stakes at the Royal Meeting, beaten four lengths by the surprise 10-1 winner Mostahdaf. There is no doubting his class though, and an easy time of things on the front end could see him be tough to peg back. His only previous attempt at this weekend’s distance saw him stay on to the line behind Alpanista in last year’s Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and he finds himself as the closest challenger to his stablemate Auguste Rodin in the betting. No forlorn hope.

 

8. POINT LONSDALE (66/1)

The fourth potential runner for Coolmore and Ballydoyle maestro Aidan O’Brien, who is bidding for his fifth win in the contest. Point Lonsdale, a four-year-old colt by Australia, had been previously progressive prior to his Group 1 Coronation Cup third last month, where he was decisively beaten nine and a quarter lengths by the winner Emily Upjohn. A five-time stakes winner, he has only once finished out of the first three in his nine starts to date, finishing tenth in last year’s Group 1 English 2,000 Guineas, a race that turned out to be his only start of the season. A horse that tends to race lazily at times, he doesn’t strike as one to be relying on in a race of this nature and may struggle.

 

9. PYLEDRIVER (7/1)

Last year’s shock 18-1 winner beat a classy field in a fairly decisive fashion, and one that is not to be underestimated once again. Something of a globetrotter having also finished runner-up in the 2021 Group 1 Hong Kong Vase and fourth in the 2022 Group 1 Dubai Sheema Classic, the William Muir and Chris Grassick-trained six-year-old entire arrives into this year’s renewal in good form, having made a winning reappearance in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. A dual winner at the elite level, he will be thereabouts at the finish if able to reproduce an effort similar to last years, with Muir feeling the son of Harbour Watch is stronger this time around. “He was in great shape going there last year but he’s every bit as good this time,” Muir said. “I think he’s stronger this year. Physically he looks better and mentally he’s always been fantastic. It looks a strong field but my horse has looked good every time he’s run and I’d be as confident as any other trainer in the race.” 

 

10. SIMCA MILLE (33/1)

The only potential contender to come from outside of the UK and Ireland, Sebastian Wattel’s four-year-old colt is yet to score at Group 1 level but that looks only a matter of when, and not if, given the level of authority he showed in his most recent three and a half lengths success in the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly on June 4. Although French form doesn’t always stack up, it is hard to argue that they have bounced back into the limelight with a vengeance this season, showcasing their talent with the likes of Ace Impact and Blue Rose Cen. Runner-up in the Group 1 Prix Ganay, where he was only run out of it in the closing stages by Iresine, that form is difficult to downplay given that last year’s Group 1 British Champion Stakes winner Bay Bridge and Group 1 Eclipse hero Vadeni finished in third and fourth places respectively. A reproduction of that performance will give this Arc hopeful every chance of going close this weekend, with the trip a proven positive.

 

11. WESTOVER (20/1)

Juddmonte Farms’ four-year-old colt could have counted himself a slightly unlucky loser when third in last year’s Group 1 Epsom Derby, however, he made amends in the greatest fashion when producing a devastating seven-length victory in the Irish equivalent. Sent off the 13-8 favourite for the 2022 renewal of this contest, the son of Frankel threw away his chance in the first half of the race, pulling fiercely and fading late to finish fifth, beaten a distance by the winner. He rounded off his three-year-old campaign with a respectable sixth-placed effort in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Returning from a 69-day break, Westover was beaten three and a half lengths when runner-up behind Equinox, the world’s highest-rated racehorse, in the Dubai Sheema Classic. A close-up second behind Emily Upjohn in the Coronation Cup preceded a game success in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, where the softer conditions may not have suited. Connections will be hoping the rain stays away this weekend, but he looks a big price should conditions come up trumps.

 

12. EMILY UPJOHN (5/1)

Now a dual Group 1 winner following her smooth success in the Coronation Cup last month, her first outing since streaking to victory in the 2022 Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, Emily Upjohn will put the form of Paddington to the test here, having finished runner-up behind Coolmore’s crack three-year-old in a riveting renewal of the Group 1 Eclipse on July 8. A step back up to the mile-and-a-half distance is sure to suit the John and Thady Gosden-trained four-year-old filly and she rates as one of the most likely winners. “It was always going to be a challenge coming down in distance for the Eclipse,” the filly’s co-owner, John Shack, said. “But we’re sporting about it all and we thought, ‘Let’s give it a go’. We were very pleased for the winning connections and we were delighted with our filly as well. We’re there on our merits and the distance suits us. I think the industry is benefiting from these high-quality fields. What is thrilling is to take on the big battalions.”

 

13. ADELAIDE RIVER (25/1)

Unlucky for some, but maybe not for Coolmore as they continue to witness this three-year-old colt’s rapid progression at the top level. Having failed to win anything but a maiden (on debut) in six starts on the track, the son of Australia seemed to put up a hugely improved display when pushing his stablemate Auguste Rodin very close in the Group 1 Irish Derby earlier this month. However, that seemingly out of the blue performance was confirmed just 13 days later as he was beaten just a length in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris, with Epsom Oaks heroine Soul Sister a neck behind him in third place. He is not certain to line up, given that this is just another fortnight on from that most recent effort, however, if he does, it is hard to discount him from running yet another huge race in his current form.

 

14. AUGUSTE RODIN (7/2)

Auguste Rodin, a now dual Derby-winning stallion in waiting and the horse to provide Aidan O’Brien with his 100th European Classic winner, finds himself atop of the market to land yet another Group 1 event. Marked down by O’Brien as possibly ‘the most important horse ever for us’ following his dramatic Epsom Derby victory on June 3, the son of late Japanese sire sensation Deep Impact will appreciate a solid gallop here, with at least one of his potential five stablemates surely set to make it a true test. The three-year-old, Auguste Rodin will receive a potentially crucial 11lbs from the older males and 8lbs from Emily Upjohn, the sole elder female, however, O’Brien feels that the weight-for-age is less significant than can sometimes be expected. Speaking on the Nick Luck Daily Podcast this week he said: “Age is a massive thing for a thoroughbred – they usually improve a lot from three to four. We would find that physically and mentally, and you can see rapid improvement in terms of body weight and body strength from three to four so you need a very good three-year-old to take on the older horses really.” 

 

15. KING OF STEEL (7/2)

Finally, last but certainly not least, Auguste Rodin’s old nemesis and Epsom Derby runner-up King Of Steel will be out to seek his revenge this weekend. Having travelled well and kicked clear of the field in the Epsom feature, the Roger Varian-trained son of Wootton Bassett was reeled in late by Auguste Rodin and was eventually beaten half-a-length at the line. However, what was most impressive about the performance was that it was King Of Steel’s first outing for 224 days, first for Varian, and only his third ever on the track at all. Clearly an ultra-progressive type, the colt then comfortably swept aside five rivals in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot just 20 days later, despite pulling hard throughout the opening half of the contest. “After discussions with Roger and the boss [Kia Joorabchian] we thought the extra couple of weeks would benefit King Of Steel as it’s a long season. He’s proved to everyone he’s got a high level of ability so he’ll be aimed at all of the top races this summer,” Tom Pennington, racing manager to owners Amo Racing, said.

 

VERDICT – EMILY UPJOHN

A truly excellent King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes in prospect should most of these turn up, with my arrow landing on the remarkable Emily Upjohn as she bids for a third elite-level success. Having gone down fighting all the way when a half-length behind Paddington in the Eclipse last time out, which rates as one of the races of the season, she looks to have outstanding claims back up to her preferred mile-and-a-half trip. The weight-for-age makes it tricky coming up against the crack three-year-olds Auguste Rodin and King Of Steel, but Paddington looks a real standout in that younger division, so to push him so close was a peak effort on her part. She has every chance of upholding that form in a race I’d advise you not to miss.

 

Name To Note – Henry Longfellow

Making his debut at the Curragh last Saturday, the Aidan O’Brien-trained Henry Longfellow (2 c Dubawi – Minding by Galileo) lived up to his beautiful pedigree as he landed a seven-furlong maiden in decisive style. Ridden by Ryan Moore, the juvenile colt, a son of Darley stalwart Dubawi, was ridden prominently throughout before challenging at the two-furlong pole. Leading clearly arriving at the final furlong, Henry Longfellow was ridden briefly to extend his advantage and strode out well to run out a convincing length and three-quarter winner over the fellow Coolmore-owned Mythology, who is trained by Aidan’s son Joseph O’Brien. There was a further three-quarters of a length back to the third-placed Master Of The Hunt, a stable-and-ownermate of the winner, in third place. “Henry Longfellow did it very easily and Ryan didn’t have to touch him,” O’Brien said post-race. “He had been working well, he came on the scene really over the last three weeks. He’s an exciting type of horse.” Henry Goodfellow is the second foal out of the English 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks heroine Minding, herself a sister to fellow Oaks scorer Tuesday and to the Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Empress Josephine being out of the dual Group 1 winner Lillie Langtry.