Winx a glorious exception to Murphy’s law
Except, it seems, if your name is Winx.
While the extraordinary frequency of her stride length has been well canvassed of late her freakish winning run has to be as much about trainer Chris Waller’s incredible management in minimising the Murphy risk; his management in having her free from pain and injury; her heart and lung capacity; her willingness to run – and a little true grit.
Given her racing style there will always be the propensity for something to go wrong. However, she effortlessly (on most occasions) overcomes conceding a start. A fourth Cox Plate and, who knows, an international success would have her incomparable and she does seem to have sipped from the fountain of youth.
Last Saturday, she was simply breathtaking in her first-up and 26th consecutive win. She ran her final 600 metres in a stunning 32.33 seconds, which was easily the fastest closing 600 metre sectional of the day. That was around two seconds quicker than Redzel in last year’s Everest, by somewhat tenuous but nonetheless interesting comparison. What price would you take her winning The Everest?!
She made her run wide on a track which appeared to advantage those racing nearer the inside. She increases her stride rate, estimated to be about 17 per cent greater than the average racehorse, in the closing stages of a race as others shorten due to fatigue.
It’s near impossible to write anything new about this amazing mare but it seemed almost churlish to scribble something about anything else in a weekly column.
It is interesting to look at the 26 horses (21 individuals) who’ve finished second to her in this winning run. There’s been just six next-start winners from the 24 runners-up (to have raced again) and four of those wins were provided by Hartnell and Happy Clapper so this doesn’t augur especially well for last Saturday’s 150-1 second Invictus Prince.
However, this does not decry the form. A further six of the runners-up, foolishly took on Winx again next start. The three rivals vanquished in the Cox Plate – Criterion, Hartnell and Humidor – contested the Melbourne Cup next time out, with the first two named placed despite being high in the handicaps and running beyond their distance capacity.
Happy Clapper’s subsequent Epsom and Doncaster wins is all the confirmation you need of the Winx form; Hauraki similarly won an Epsom after finishing second to Winx and Hartnell’s winning record in the absence of the mare, especially in 2016, has been excellent.
So, what of any ‘new’ challengers to Winx in the spring of 2018? Might they be from within for her own quarters? The Waller trained four-year-olds D’Argento and Kaonic certainly impressed at Randwick last Saturday but it is too early to call just how last season’s three-year-old crop will measure up.
Mick Price’s four-year-olds Grunt and Holy Snow also performed soundly in the PB Lawrence Stakes at Caulfield but again time will tell.
The other reality check is that mid-August form rarely translates to what unfolds from mid-October on when the major prize-money is on offer.
Notwithstanding that, last Saturday’s performance of the Darren Weir trained Kings Will Dream was outstanding. He had the race’s fastest closing splits behind Showtime and the aforementioned yardstick Hartnell, who each enjoyed cosy runs.
Kings Will Dream had, of course, been unbeaten in his first five runs in Australia and was first-up from his emphatic five length win in the Mornington Cup in March. I will be shocked if he doesn’t capture a major race through the spring.
As the quality of racing begins to intensify, there were a number of likely coming winners (at least in the next two to three weeks) to emerge from the Caulfield and Randwick meetings last weekend. The eye-catchers at Caulfield were La Bella Diosa, Overstep, Long Leaf, Golden Halo and Bella Martini while the blackbookers from the Sydney meeting were Brook Magic, Ready To Prophet, Irukandji, Le Romain, Netoyer and I Am Coldplay.
On the jockey front, I fancy that Luke Currie – who’s riding very well – and a presumably hungry James McDonald might enjoy considerable spring success.