Winx Stakes offers vital clues for Saturday’s feature race at Randwick
However it may not be as daunting as it seems. The inclination is to imagine a plethora of left-field, long-shot outcomes but in the past three years there’s been only two winners at greater than 10/1 at either Caulfield’s Memsie Stakes meeting or Randwick’s Chelmsford Stakes fixture.
The trick obviously is somehow determining which of those returning early season are ready. Barring some inside oil, at least the above figures suggest that if they’re not reasonably fancied in the betting they are unlikely to jump out of the ground at 66/1 to boost your retirement fund.
The most predictable of today’s feature races has been the Chelmsford Stakes as each of the past eleven winners has come through the Warwick (now Winx) Stakes. Hardly a shock, you say, as the obvious lead-up, but instructive nonetheless.
Only one horse, Winx, won both races. All but one of the eleven were second-up into the Chelmsford and all bar two drew inside six and were afforded good runs in transit.
Thus the obvious 2018 candidates are Cabeza De Vaca and Unforgotten who finished fifth and sixth respectively behind Winx in the race named in her honour. Both could be backed to show a profit at the odds available at the time of writing. The preference is for Unforgotten who was so good through the line when resuming; has a great second-up record and who presumably wasn’t gunned up to beat her illustrious stablemate when returning.
There does look to be potentially strong early pressure in the Chelmsford which would play more to Unforgotten’s advantage than that of Cabeza De Vaca. That would also advantage her stablemate Libran who I fancy is capable of running a big race at huge odds.
The wildcard runner is of course the Godolphin acquisition Mr Moonlight Magic who’s now prepared by James Cummings and who debuts in Australia, but I’d be inclined not to risk him first time out.
Caulfield’s Memsie Stakes was won seven years straight by horses resuming from a spell – before Vega Magic won last year second-up from a return win. It’s the same profile for Vega Magic this year and he is entitled to start favourite.
The admirable Happy Clapper, the winner of 11 races and $6.3 million in prize-money (he’d have won another three races and another $2 million but for Winx), is the lone first-upper in the Memsie. He’s now eight but has won at his past two first-up attempts and eight-year-olds Le Zagaletta, Sir Boom and Redelva have won the race in recollectable if not recent memory.
Bookmakers will react with their usual haste to strong performances in these two weight-for-age races but it is worth noting that not one Caulfield Cup winner has contested either the Chelmsford or the Memsie Stakes this decade. Only two Cox Plate winners have contested either race, in that time frame, and they were the ‘freaks’ Winx and So You Think.
One horse who might advance in Cups betting after tomorrow’s racing is the Irish-bred Jaameh who began his career with Mark Johnston and is now with Lindsay Park. He’s won two of only three starts in Australia and looks set to add to that tally in the opening race at Caulfield.
He may be a low profile six-year-old but so too was last year’s Caulfield Cup winner from the same stable, Boom Time. Jaameh was genuinely impressive last start at Flemington. Mind you he’s probably short enough as it is, at around 33/1, for the Caulfield Cup.
There’s any number of promising horses in the second at Caulfield, but the horse who is over the odds is Parwan Prince who is in spectacularly good form. He’d be half the quote if he were from a more ‘prominent’ stable. A touch of rain, which is likely, would advance his cause and there’s every chance Stephanie Thornton can control the race rolling forward from the wide draw (rarely an issue from the Caulfield sprint starts).
The Hayes’ team has a strong hand in the Group 3 McNeil Stakes with recent acquisition Aylmerton and the unbeaten Tony Nicconi. Both are likely to run well along with two at good odds in Vassilator and Thorondor – in the race which Merchant Navy claimed last year en route to winning the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes and international success.
Safety first players might opt to wait for Voodoo Lad in race eight at Caulfield. Last year’s winner of the race, which was trifecta-ed by subsequent Group 1 winners Redzel, Under The Louvre and Santa Ana Lane in 2016, looks about as guaranteed as you get – in this game – to run first or second which he’s done in 20 of his 29 starts.