‘You don’t want to count chickens, because we’ve been close before, but it’ll be hard for So You Think to run him down from here’
I Am Invincible’s (Invincible Spirit) ascension from a non-Group 1 winning, $11,000 hit-and-hope stallion into Australia’s undisputed champion sire could effectively be sealed today, with Yarraman Park’s titan holding a stronger hand across the country than close rival So You Think (High Chaparral).
The battle at the top of the general sires table has been one of the fiercest in years, reminiscent of when Winx lifted Street Cry (Machiavellian) to the title ahead of Not A Single Doubt (Redoute’s Choice) in 2016, with a winning margin of just $474,000.
Heading into today’s second-last day of stakes racing and seventh-last Saturday of 2021-22, I Am Invincible leads So You Think by just $323,078. But most signs suggest time has just about run out for So You Think to reclaim the top spot he briefly held in the autumn.
I Am Invincible not only holds a strong numerical advantage across the country over So You Think on runners today, he also has powerful representation in the most lucrative races in the country, unlike his chief rival.
At Ipswich, I Am Invincible’s seven runners include the top three in betting for the $200,000 Listed Eye Liner Stakes (Listed, 1350m) – the country’s richest race today – Holyfield, Vinco, and Palladas. At the same time, his four-year-old mare, Maybe The Best, was last night third-favourite for the $150,000 Gai Waterhouse Classic (Listed, 1350m).
At Flemington, Vinnie’s three runners include I Am Me, a $15 shot for the $160,000 Creswick Stakes (Listed, 1200m). So You Think has runners in support races at Ipswich, none at Flemington and four at Rosehill, where I Am Invincible has five.
Looking a week further ahead to the last major prize-money pot of the season and the last Group 1 – the $700,000 Tatts Tiara (1400m) at Eagle Farm – I Am Invincible has Najmaty, the current $8 third favourite – while So You Think has nothing in the market.
With his service fee for this year restored to its 2019 peak of $247,500 – up from $220,000 last spring – I Am Invincible has been a dominant figure in the breeding landscape for years, rewarding the punt Yarraman’s Harry and Arthur Mitchell took on him in 2010. With his black- type wins comprising Morphettville’s DC McKay Stakes (Gr 3, 1100m) and Caulfield’s Sir John Monash Stakes (Gr 3, 1100m) – alongside a second in Takeover Target’s 2009 Goodwood (Gr 1, 1200m) in his only attempt at Group 1 – the Yarraman brothers could only be conservative in setting an initial service fee of $11,000.
It soon became evident what they had on their hands when I Am Invincible easily claimed the first season sires title in 2013-14, with Brazen Beau helping push his progeny’s earnings to double those of second-best, Denman (Lonro), and with 15 winners ahead of a trio on eight.
Despite his impressive feats since, that remains the only title claimed by the stallion – now universally known as Vinnie. Since his leap from 21st to fourth on the general sires table in his fourth season, there has been a frustrating run of four straight second-placings by the primary earnings marker on the main board until this term, though the rising 18-year-old has led by winners in the past three years.
Snitzel (Redoute’s Choice) kept him at bay for the first three of those four seasons – with Redzel’s prize-money for his second Everest (1200m) win making the difference in the middle year of 2018-19. Written Tycoon (Iglesia) took top spot last term despite 193 winners to I Am Invincible’s 208.
This season, however, Vinnie is well positioned to take the title by earnings and winners, which stood last night at 173 compared to second-best Written Tycoon’s 168.
A general sires title for I Am Invincible may have looked inevitable for some time, but that does not in the slightest diminish the excitement being felt at Yarraman.
“It’d be very nice to win it. This farm’s never had a champion stallion, so it’d be quite a thrill for the farm to have one here as well,” said Arthur Mitchell, whose father Major James “J.D.” Mitchell set up the stud in 1968 on emigrating from England and buying the property from the great jockey, George Moore.
“It would actually mean a lot to Harry and I, having never had a champion sire here, especially with a horse we’ve taken from a low base, without a lot of support early. He’s done a great job, really. And he’s still fit and well and looks great. He’s in fabulous nick at the moment.
“You don’t want to count chickens, because we’ve been close before, but it’ll be hard for So You Think to run him down from here.
“And I think Vinnie deserves it, if he can get it. He’s been close a few times, been thwarted by The Everest (Redzel), and even this year by the wet tracks, which certainly haven’t helped him through the Sydney carnival. On the whole, 95 per cent of his stock don’t like the wet that much.”
Mitchell reflected on a Sydney autumn highlight for his stallion – Kinloch’s victory in the $500,000 Provincial-Midway Championships Final (1400m).
So You Think – whose progeny have a 14 per cent strike rate on heavy tracks compared with Vinnie’s 12 per cent – struck gold on the same Heavy 10 card with the three Group 1s that propelled him to the general sires lead. Think It Over’s Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) win, Knight’s Order’s Sydney Cup (3200m) and Nimalee’s Queen Of The Turf Stakes (1600m) tipped $4.04 million into their sires’ earnings ledger on that one remarkable day.
“The wet hasn’t helped Vinnie, but he’s hung in there,” Mitchell said. “So You Think is a great stallion too, but Vinnie deserves a title. We’d be disappointed if he didn’t win it at some stage of his career.”
I Am Invincible is also in prime position to win the three-year-old sires title. Although second to Snitzel on the score of 55 winners to 62, Vinnie leads a tight earnings battle over Maurice (Screen Hero), starting today with $7,014,867 to $6,911,950. While that’s a lead of just $103,000, Yarraman’s stallion looks certain to hold out Arrowfield’s by weight of numbers, having had almost double Maurice’s three-year-old runners this term – 103 to 57.
Team Yarraman will naturally be cheering I Am Invincible’s star three-year-old Home Affairs in the early hours of Sunday morning when he contests the Platinum Jubilee Stakes (Gr 1, 6f) at Royal Ascot, but of course that won’t affect matters on the Australian table.
Today may also bring more clarity on an extremely congested leaderboard for third season sires, in which the top four are separated by only $258,310.
Pride Of Dubai (Street Cry) leads by just $40,476 and has $9 shot Street Dancer in the $175,000 Ipswich Cup (Listed, 2150m). Vancouver (Medaglia D’Oro) sits second, and is $207,000 ahead of Spill The Beans (Snitzel), who’s just $11,000 ahead of Real Impact (Deep Impact).
Among two-year-old sires, second-placed Snitzel has been closing on Rebel Dane (California Dane), but has likely run out of time to bridge a gap which stands today at $508,605.
Rebel Dane, switching this spring to Widden Stud in the Hunter Valley after limited opportunities through his first five years in Victoria, has achieved top spot in remarkable fashion. He has one winner from just three two-year-old runners from his second crop, but with that being Golden Slipper (Gr 1,1200m)-Sires Produce (Gr 1, 1400m) double victor Fireburn – and her $3.87 million in earnings – the rising 13-year-old has a decisive edge over Snitzel, and his 15 winners from 46 runners.
Rebel Dane, who’s had seven winners from 17 runners overall this season, has a rare chance to extend his two-year-old lead at Flemington today, with third-starter Anphina last night a $3.60 favourite in the Rod Johnson Handicap (1420m).